BLAIR’S FRAGILE LEAD

I’ll stick what’s left of my neck out and predict a very bumpy election night for Tony Blair. Iraq has emerged as an issue in the campaign exactly when Blair didn’t want it to; the latest polling suggests that 36 percent of the electorate may yet change its mind; and the Tory strategy of focusing on individual constituencies rather than a national polling advantage may bear fruit. Here’s the data that’s worrying for Blair. Alas, I’ll be on an airplane when the results come through (I’m going to L.A. to record the Bill Maher show for Friday). But I’ll blog the results and the spin when I get to California.