Two pieces of analysis to grapple with the seemingly growing insurgency in Iraq. I say “growing” because, as Steve Chapman points out,
Fatalities from car bombings and suicide bombings have soared five-fold since November. Attacks on U.S. forces have been running at 70 a day, double the rate in March and April.
Steve proposes reducing U.S. troop levels to undermine the political appeal of the insurgency. But wouldn’t that withdrawal merely empower the insurgency? It would certainly demoralize the Iraqi government, such as it is. A more persuasive case is made in the NYT, arguing for a more thorough re-training of Iraqi military commanders – by taking them for long periods to the U.S. I have to say that sounds more sensible to me. Even then, however, we need to be thinking in terms of around a decade of major commitment. Have we made that case to the American people? Have we prepared for it? To my mind, one measure of the administration’s seriousness is its plans for the military. We obviously need more manpower to deal with Iraq and any other serious crises. And yet Rumsfeld is opposed. I guess when you believe that the insurgency is in “its last throes,” you don’t need to reach for more radical solutions. What we have, I fear, is an administration in a cocoon of its own denial. That denial was intensified by the two elections last November and last January. I just hope it unravels soon.
The Dish 