Remember all the stories in the New York Times and the New Yorker claiming a huge new wave of HIV infections among gay men in the last few years? In Michael Specter’s recent New Yorker piece, we were simply told, “What’s new is the rise in [HIV] infections in the gay communities in such cities as San Francisco and New York.” Huh? Last time I checked, New York City had reported declining HIV rates for three years in a row. (To give a simple example, according to the New York City Health Department, 6,478 New Yorkers were diagnosed with HIV in 2001; in 2003, that number was 4,205.) Similarly, Washington Post columnist, Richard Cohen, in a February column, wrote of “the apparent upsurge in HIV infections among gay males.” The New York Times reported as fact that “a growing number of gay men [have] become infected despite warnings about unsafe sex.” Now, in another city, we’re seeing a big readjustment in infection figures – downward. Money quote from San Francisco:
Since 2001, the city’s highly regarded epidemiology team has held to an estimate that more than 1,000 city residents are newly infected with the AIDS virus each year. But last month, a federal study of HIV among gay men in five U.S. cities found that new infections in San Francisco were occurring at about half the rate recorded four years ago. “This one (CDC) study has been quite an eye opener for us,” said Dr. Willi McFarland, epidemiologist for the San Francisco Department of Public Health’s Office of AIDS … Data from the city’s sexually transmitted disease clinics, where infection rates are expected to be high and were 5.4 percent in 2000, have fallen to 3.2 percent. At a clinic that provides anonymous testing services, rates have fallen from 3.9 percent to 2.8 percent.
Some of us have had our eyes open for a while now. How many stories will the New York Times devote to this news? My prediction: nada. Will the New Yorker, famous for its rigorous fact-checking, account for what appear to be obvious mistakes, which were the basis for the argument of the entire piece? Will Richard Cohen?
ONE MORE DETAIL: How are the AIDS and HIV “experts” explaining the drop? Here’s an interesting angle:
“HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in San Francisco appears to be decreasing,” said city health director Dr. Mitch Katz. The reasons for the apparent decline in new HIV infections may take years to understand, but Katz said the most likely explanation is that effective AIDS drugs have lowered the level of virus in those men who are HIV-positive and still having unprotected sex. Another possibility is that gay men are increasingly reserving the most risky behaviors, such as anal intercourse without a condom, for partners who are of the same sero-status — a practice known as “sero-sorting.” For example, HIV-positive men who sero-sort would have unprotected sex only with HIV positive partners.
This is what has also been called “bare-backing.” As long as it is between men with the same sero-status, and everything is disclosed and negotiated beforehand, it can help restrain the epidemic, rather than perpetuate it. The ironies continue.
The Dish 