THE IRAQ IMPASSE?

Well, it doesn’t look to me like an impasse. It looks to me like an inevitable moment of truth in a democratic process. The one minority group that is bound to lose the most from a new, devolved constitution – the Sunni elite – is resisting the complete rearrangement of Iraq’s polity on democratic lines. Sure, it would have been much better if legit Sunni leaders had signed onto a solid deal. But they didn’t, and now their recalcitrance will be put to a vote. Yes: a vote. What we have here is a remarkable demonstration of a modern Arab and Muslim country working through its own political arrangements in a pre-ordained constitutional process. That itself is something of an achievement. It reveals that although the U.S. is obviously heavily present as a force for ultimate order, the Iraqis themselves are figuring out how to run their country again. This takes time, as president Bush is right to point out, and patience. And it is also a demonstration of the kind of transformation we are aiming for in the Middle East: where people take responsibility for their own polities in a democratic fashion. I don’t think the Bush team could have waved a magic wand and made all this difficult bargaining any easier or simpler, and from all that I can tell, they have been doing the best they can. It doesn’t seem that obvious to me either that the failure to get the Sunnis to sign off means a more intense insurgency. The violence is being propelled by forces who want no deal at all – and some kind of deal might have emboldened them still further. The job of the U.S. is to do a far better job of providing security. David Brooks’ suggestion seems like a no-brainer. John McCain’s support for more troops makes sense as well. No real progress will be made militarily without removing Rumsfeld, however. He remains the most intransigent defender of failed policies. He should go; the Iraq process should continue; the goal of reshaping the Muslim Middle East remains our best security aginst future terror. If you’re interested, I make a more detailed case for cautious optimism here.
UPDATE: Juan Cole counters my cautious optimism.

BIG GOVERNMENT CONSERVATISM: The Bush people spend like paleo-liberals; they borrow like paleo-liberals; and they regulate like paleo-liberals. The only thing they don’t do is tax like paleo-liberals. But that will come. This president has made the permanent increase of taxation in this country an inevitability.