“I think your conclusion that global warming has nothing to do with the destruction in the South is a bit premature. First, two admissions: You (and the Times) are right, science hasn’t shown a connection between hurricane frequency and climate change. Second, global warming is certainly not responsible for any individual hurricane.
However, there is evidence that hurricane intensity may well be linked to global warming. There’s an interesting piece in Nature by Kerry Emanuel that explores this link. While global climate change may not increase the number of hurricanes we experience, an increase in the severity and duration of hurricanes could be just as bad, if not worse.
The point is that our actions have environmental consequences that in turn affect our well being. Combine the preliminary research by Emanuel with the strong evidence that diminishing wetlands around New Orleans removes an important protective barrier, and I think there’s a strong case to be made that we may be making ourselves more vulnerable to severe weather events. This doesn’t mean we should start blaming the victim or saying that ‘we had it coming’, but it does warrant a closer look at how we can make better choices by accounting for all of the costs. Isn’t that essentially your SUV argument?” Here’s what NASA says about the potential effects of global warming:
Right now the IPCC reports that the amount of precipitation, especially in the mid-latitude to high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, will likely increase. They believe, however, that it will come in the form of bigger, wetter storms, rather than in the form of more rainy days. So it’s more probable that the increase in rain will only serve to tax our drainage systems rather than benefit vegetation or replenish natural, underground aquifers. As to larger more destructive weather patterns, hurricanes will likely increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures. And researchers speculate that El Niño events may increase in intensity for the same reason.
Here’s another source:
Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions.
I already conceded that in the abstract, global warming might be related to hurricanes. But there’s no specific evidence to relate it to Katrina, worse hurricanes have landed before, and nothing that has just happened is somehow unprecedented in recent history. But the climatic future doesn’t look good for New Orleans in the coming century.
HOW TO SELL A CAR SOUND SYSTEM: Inter-species sex, of course!
GET OUT NOW: Juan Cole wants immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Here’s an interview with the leftist prof in Foreign Policy.
96 PERCENT CHIMP: They’ve done the chimpanzee genome – and we’re 96 percent the same DNA. If you’re one of the 70 percent of evangelical Christians who believe we were all made on one day 6,000 years ago, best not to read the link.
THE REALISTS STRIKE BACK: The conservative debate on Iraq intensifies. Gary Rosen reviews some realist critiques.
“VERY FIRST TERM”: One of Condi’s key aides takes a sideswipe at Rumsfeld in this piece.
The Dish 