Record numbers seem to be signing up to vote on the new Iraq constitution (and we may be having more success against the insurgency). It strikes me that the voting number is both good and also worrying news. It’s good news because the simple experience of actually changing things through voting, rather than killing, changes a political and social culture. (Hey, one day, those of us who live in D.C. may get the same democratic rights as Fallujans!) But what happens if there’s a massive Sunni turnout to vote against the Constitution and they don’t win a majority in the necessary three provinces to derail it? Wouldn’t that bring home to recalcitrant Sunnis that they cannot win through democracy even when they participate? Isn’t there a danger that this could really be the moment when the paramilitary and terror groups can rally the Sunni base? Or that we could be forced to witness the two majority groups – Kurds and Shia – essentially wage a civil war against their previous rulers? Or would it be the moment when the Sunnis finally realize – and accept – that their time is over? I guess we could have a result in which surprising numbers of Sunnis vote for the constitution, which would be wonderful. But I don’t know of many sources who would predict that. The balance between measured hope and intermittent despair seems particularly hard to maintain right now.
THE OTHER IRAN: Ledeen is, as ever, must-reading.
The Dish 