GOOD NEWS IN IRAQ

Another mass-murderer gets his come-uppance. Some mild rejoicing is in order. There is evidence that we are making some gradual progress against the insurgency, although so much depends on the political developments of the next few months. My hope is that the experience of voting might prompt many Sunnis to abandon the Jihadist and Baathist insurgents. My fear is that the new constitution is too tough on the Sunnis – especially with regard to oil revenue – and that if they vote in large numbers but still fail to reject the current deal, they might sour on the new Iraq even further. But the bottom line in Iraq is that any move to democracy under even optimal circumstances would require a grueling campaign against the minority who once ran Iraq with appalling brutality and will not go quietly. Better for other Iraqis to battle them than us. But as long as we can, we need to train and fight alongside the defenders of the nascent Iraqi state. Now is not the time to cut and run. Now is the time to stay the course, while constantly adapting tactics. And by ‘stay the course,’ I envisage some American military role for at least five more years, and probably longer.