In history, it is always best to be ready to be surprised. In the Middle East, once in a blue moon, the surprises can even be pleasant ones. The news that the Iraqi sectarian factions may be close to a national oil deal is encouraging. It’s the first tangible sign or real seriousness in what remains of the Iraqi elite. I have no idea what has hastened the pace of change, but if it is related to the threat of the U.S. to withdraw troops, then it proves that we still have some leverage over the Iraqis, and almost all of it is negative.
The other glimmer is the sign of adults pushing back against Ahmadinejad in Iran. This ABC News story is fascinating and suggests that the petite maniac may be about to see his prestige wane. It also suggests to me that the nuclear card is his way of appealing for popular support, and we should do what we can not to allow him to pose as the savior of his nation’s pride. Unlike Iraq, Persia is a real country, and will one day be a rightful regional power. Most Persians, especially the next generation, are pro-Western and pro-American. We must not forget that or them. Time may be on our side – hence Ahmadinejad’s desperate attempt to jump-start his nuclear program.
Does this mean the costs and benefits shift in our decision about what to do in Iraq? I’d say both developments make the option of recommitting to Iraq with serious manpower more palatable than it was only a week ago. These are fine judgment calls. I’m torn between Double-Down or Full Metal McCain, and leaning toward the former, if only because of the apparent lack of seriousness in the Baghdad elite and the lack of sheer ability in the White House. But the president may benefit from further deliberation, and the Baker-Hamilton report and the polls in the U.S. paradoxically strengthen his negotiating position with Maliki. He can now credibly say, "Look, we’re out of here, unless …" He has a little more time. Just not much. But if there is a glimmer of hope to save the place, we should not be blind to it.
(Photo: Jim Young/Reuters.)
The Dish 