Will Iran Deal?

Time’s sources say there’s a faction in Tehran fearful of Iraqi chaos and willing to talk to the US. The reason? They think they are in a relative position of strength right now … but also potentially threatened in the medium term by Iraq’s disintegration:

Iran is also increasingly concerned about the need to stabilize Iraq, say TIME’s sources, in contrast to U.S. charges that Tehran is fueling instability there. The sources indicate that Iranian officials essentially agree with the Baker-Hamilton conclusion that while Iran gains an advantage from having the U.S. mired in Iraq, its long-term interests are not served by Iraqi chaos and territorial disintegration. "Iran would love to see the situation stabilized in Iraq," says a source. "That is a very important concern for Iran. But Iran doesn’t want to see the U.S. declare victory, in case the Americans would like to attack Iran next." The sources say that among the ways Iran could be helpful is to try to persuade groups representing the Shi’ite majority and Kurds in Iraq to be more conciliatory to the Sunni minority whose grievances fuel the insurgency.

Leveraging Arab chaos against Persia’s long-term interests is one of the few cards the U.S. has left. The question of when and how to play it is now the central one.