Who knows? Waiting till January is not ideal, given the gravity of the situation. Trying to find a new governing coalition sans Sadr strikes me as Sysyphean at this point, but I suppose one more push can’t hurt. A troop surge might help such an effort, but, again, it’s just one last gambit, not a real strategy. But all this looks as if it’s in the works. I see, of course, no sign that we are going to seriously reboot the occupation, so all of this is simply a way to minimize the short-term costs of leaving. It’s face-saving, which only a huge amount of luck might turn into something better. So try it – but no illusions, please. McCain may do a photo-op with Bush in january, but wihout 50,000 more troops, it’s pure theater.
Moreover, I think the risk of hanging in with this strategy after February is far too great – because we are already on the verge of siding with one faction in the civil war, and that has dreadful ramifications, as the Saudis have reminded us. Our first objective must be to avoid becoming enmeshed in the civil war. Our second objective must be to do what we can to save Iraq in the short time left to us before a full-fledged civil war obliterates all other options.
So: one last face-saving effort, hoping for a miracle. Then: get the hell out. Perhaps six months redeployment to Kurdistan to protect the only secure haven left, before complete disengagement. Then use the Sunni-Shia regional war to divert Islamist terror away from the West and toward the Arab states that have enabled it. Meanwhile, massive new investment in human intelligence, language skills, and more attention to homeland security – and a new effort to salvage Afghanistan.
History will probably record that the United States accidentally jump-started a thirty year war in the Middle East. Oil prices will become terribly unstable, as it is used as a weapon by both Sunnis and Shiites. But that’s good in the long run for the West as well. Our politicians won’t take responsibility for the energy-environmental crisis, so we might as well let war take care of it.
It’s going to be a hellish few years, and not without some kind of catastrophe, I fear. But I see no way to avoid it; and plenty of worse scenarios in trying to do so. Alas, we have two years of ineptitude in the White House. But we already made that call in 2004. You do triage with the president you’ve got, as Rummy might say.
(Photo: Jim Young/Reuters.)
The Dish 