[Alex]
All this huffing and puffing about the 2008 presidential race is all very well and good. But it’s noteworthy, I think, that almost all the punditry and speculation focuses on whose candidacy is viable; there is almost no discussion of who might actually make the president, or at least seems best qualified to wrestle with the job. In a better-ordered world it might be the other way round, even if the media facination with viability and the primaries is endlessly diverting for those involved.
In other words, we have here a distinct divide between those who judge a candidate via what one might, to borrow from college football, call a "power ranking" and those who adopt the "resume approach" in deciding who is the best equipped to be Number 1. Pundits prefer the "power ranking"; voters might be advised to consider the "resume".
Sunday Morning Quarterback (who you really should be reading if you have any interest in college football) explains the difference here:
POWER RANKING: The apparently preferred method, which asks simply, "Who’s better?" or "Who would beat who on a neutral field?" or something like that. No measurables, just a human brain sorting information as it sees fit – a kind of almost metaphysical effort to determine the "essence" of a team in its current incarnation. If you’re a voter and haven’t given much thought to your overriding method, this is almost definitely what you’re doing…
THE RESUME: A method that attempts to rank based strictly on the measurable: if each team had a resume for this season and this season only, and its name at the top was blacked out, how would the voter rank those resumes? Takes into account only games played to date this season – these are folks who always complain about polls that come out and distort reality before October. SMQ’s preferred method all year, and seemingly the default method for most end-of-season rankings.
Translate this into, say, the Republican nomination and look where this leaves Rudy Giuliani. He’s nowhere in the "power rankings" because few people think he can really win. But if you were to judge the candidates on their "resume" I’d want to know your explanation for not ranking him at the top of the list.
This is true even if you factor out 9/11. Being President of the United States of America is quite a tough assignment. Executive experience would be an advantage. But it also needs you to set a tone, construct a framework for public affairs and debate etc etc. You have to boss the public square. That also takes vision and leadership.
Is there a better training ground for the Presidency than being Mayor of New York City? It’s hard to think of one.
The Mayor of New York must grapple – nay, fight! – a bewilderingly complex and byzantine bureaucracy plagued by turf wars, vested interests and a bloody-minded determination to thwart change or reform. Hmmm, isn’t there a similar, but even larger and more powerful Hydra in Washington?
And it’s not as though this training takes place in a media backwater either. The scrutiny the NYC Mayor receives might – just might – be useful training for the Oval Office.
So perhaps Giuliani’s biggest challenge is to confound the "power ranking" expectations by dismantling the preconceptions that condemn his candidacy to also-ran status before it has even started.
ps: I haven”t checked the odds, but I suspect the best Presidential betting "value" right now may be to make a modest investment on neither John McCain nor Hillary Clinton being their party’s respective nominees.