A longtime reader looks on the bright side:
For all the problems, Iraq (and its neighbors) are still better off without Saddam. The danger of a Sunni Jihadi Talibanesqe stronghold are exaggerated, if only by the stark demographics. Sunni Arabs are only 15-20% of the country. If real civil war and ethnic cleansing breaks out, the Sunni Arabs are doomed. Saudis and other Arab countries getting involved in a regional war with Iran? Other than some financial support and a few thousand lunatic Jihadis, it is not very likely. They will sell out the Saddam loyalists even quicker than they did the Palestinians. Iran need not get overtly involved anyway – Shia forces in Iraq can force their will on the Sunnis without much help.
Pacification of Baghdad makes sense, but it may be too late. The only way it will work if we have the means to take on the Mahdi army and the Shia extremists with Maliki’s backing and force the government to be more open to the Sunnis (something many of us doubt).
We should continue to support Kurdistan and Anbar. Many Sunnis realize that the Shias are a threat, but the Jihadis are no real protection. Interesting that anywhere the radical Muslims gain power they quickly alienate the locals. They are just religious versions of Saddam, holding power by use of terror. We can exploit that in Anbar (our presence keeps the Shias at bay and also gives us opportunity to kill foreign troublemakers). Kurdistan is mostly a success (thanks to them) – all we need to do is give them cover from the Turks.
Hey, here’s hoping.
(Photo of Moqtada al-Sadr by Ali Jarekji/Reuters.)
The Dish 