Sad or Sadr?

Moqtada says his militias won’t attack for a month; and his chief aide is arrested. What this means is unclear, like a lot of things in Iraq. But these seem like significant developments to me because either a) they reveal the sit-it-out policy of Iraq’s Shia in response to "Plus Up," given a fig leaf by a symbolc arrest; or b) they represent real, if tiny, progress. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.