One way of deciphering the opinions of Glenn Reynolds – it’s hard work, but someone’s got to do it – is to examine his links. He is non-committal on "Plus Up": he says he’s for it, but only if it’s conducted the right way (quite what the right way would be is left vague). But he gleefully links to anyone who argues that criticism of the surge is a function solely of a) siding with al Qaeda; b) partisan advantage; c) political cowardice; or d) media bias. Here’s his latest link: "JULES CRITTENDEN: SURGE!" Is he for it? Is he against it? Does he agree? Does he disagree? No idea. Then you read the link, and find this:
The signs of success [for the surge] are showing up fast. The mere suggestion of a serious crackdown has prompted its targets to run for cover. Moqtada al-Sadr is angling to get back into the political process. His Shiite militias men have hidden their weapons and are trying to act normal. Sunni insurgents are reportedly hightailing it to Diyala. Iran has signalled it wants positive engagement and negotiations, and is trying to look like a friendly neighbor to Iraq.
Those are only preliminary and temporary developments. But they represent a vote of confidence in the Bush plan from its target. The enemy has shown fear. The enemy does not want us to attack.
Er, there is another, obvious explanation for these developments, as a cursory read of the newspapers (liberal media bias!!) will reveal. The "surge" is so anemic it is only designed to calm sections of Baghdad outside the power-base of the Shiite militias (Sadr City). Since these militias control the Maliki government, their current quietness is explicable primarily in terms of simply waiting until the Americans have gone. We know this surge won’t last more than a few months. Why fight when you can wait? Why fight when the bulk of the surge will be dealing with Sunni extremists in Anbar and Sunni districts in Baghdad? Why wouldn’t the Shiite militias be quite pleased by the U.S. doing their work for them? Does he think they’re actually scared?
Crittenden also argues that because 63 percent of Americans want the surge to succeed, it will. Heck, I’m amazed that anyone would not want the surge to succeed. Of course, we’d all love it to succeed. I sure would. I’d also like al Qaeda to surrender, Ahmadinejad to be deposed, and al-Sadr to order his militias to disarm. But I’m not delusional. And I see little reason to encourage others to be so.
The Dish 