We shouldn’t rule it out. There’s solid data on a real drop in bombings and murders in Baghdad since Plus Up began. It’s almost solely because the Shiite militias are just lying low. But it’s still a good thing. Money quote:
The rattle of automatic weapons fire or the rumble of distant roadside bombs comes less frequently. Traffic is beginning to return to the city’s once vacant streets.
"People are very optimistic because they sense a development. The level of sectarian violence in streets and areas has decreased," said a 50-year-old Shiite, who gave his name only as Abu Abbas. "The activities of the militias have also decreased. The car bombs and the suicide attacks are the only things left, while other kinds of violence have decreased."
In the months before the security operation began Feb. 14, police were finding dozens of bodies each day in the capital – victims of Sunni and Shiite death squads. Last December, more than 200 bodies were found each week – with the figure spiking above 300 in some weeks, according to police reports compiled by The Associated Press.
Since the crackdown began, weekly totals have dropped to about 80 – hardly an acceptable figure but clearly a sign that death squads are no longer as active as they were in the final months of last year.
Bombings too have decreased in the city, presumably due to U.S. and Iraqi success in finding weapons caches and to more government checkpoints in the streets that make it tougher to deliver the bombs. In the 27 days leading up to the operation, 528 people were killed in bombings around the capital, according to AP figures. In the first 27 days of the operation, the bombing death toll stood at 370 – a drop of about 30 percent.
This isn’t normality; the carnage is still awful. But it’s less awful than recently. If Petraeus continues to keep this momentum going, the debate about staying in Iraq may change one more time. (Memo to self: I wonder what would have happened if a sane counter-insurgency strategy had been implemented with sufficient troops in 2003?)
(Photo: An Iraqi boy shakes hands with a US soldier patrolling in Sadr city, a predominantly Shiite Baghdad suburb, 13 March 2007. By Wissam Al-Okaili/AFP/Getty.)
The Dish 