Not so much. But the omens aren’t good:
I think the chances of a significant incursion, meaning beyond what we’ve recently seen reported of late (and beyond what we saw on and off in the 90s), is trending north of 50/50, perhaps as soon as this summer/fall.
The Economist was ahead of the curve. I stick with my view that we should be as adamant on Turkish involvement in our departure as we were indifferent to them upon invasion. And some see evidence that we are giving democracy short shrift in the one part of Iraq where we have seen relative success:
During my trips in Iraqi Kurdistan, I see how grateful ordinary Kurdish citizens are to the U.S. government and American people for the establishment of the safe haven in 1991, the no-fly zone, and Iraq’s liberation. But the mood is changing. Today, the Kurdish parties misuse U.S. assistance and taxpayers’ money. Rather than support democracy, the Kurdish party leaders use their funding and their militia’s operational training to curtail civil liberties. What angers Kurds is the squandered leverage. Instead of demanding rule-of-law, the White House has subordinated democracy to stability not only in Baghdad and Basra, but in Iraqi Kurdistan as well. Rather than create a model democracy, the Iraqi Kurds have replicated the governing systems of Egypt, Tunisia or, perhaps even Syria.
The Dish 