An important debate, it seems to me. Here’s Rich’s point. Here’s Matt’s. The last few years have moved me far more toward Matt’s position than I would have anticipated:
To me, the overestimation of al-Qaeda’s ability to impose its will upon Iraqis is just of a piece with earlier overestimation of the United States’ ability to impose our will upon Iraqis. This stuff is hard. It’s crucial to recall that the Taliban was not just a religious movement, but also an expression of Pashto nationalism, and that that the Taliban had a lot of trouble expanding into areas where other ethnicities predominated.
The Dish 