Yesterday, I linked to a detailed attempt to lay out the military and political logic behind the surge in Iraq. I said I remained unpersuaded, but that the piece was worth reading. At Intel-Dump, some serious military commentators have had their say on the piece. Here’s the best post. Money quote (Kilcullen’s piece is in italics):
"It is about marginalizing al Qa’ida, Shi’a extremist militias, and the other terrorist groups from the population they prey on. This is why claims that “80% of AQ leadership have fled” don’t overly disturb us: the aim is not to kill every last AQ leader, but rather to drive them off the population and keep them off, so that we can work with the community to prevent their return."
Okay, so let me try and break this down a little bit.
"… al Qa’ida, Shi’a extremist militias, and the other terrorist groups from the population they prey on…to drive them off the population and keep them off, so that we can work with the community to prevent their return…"
So the fundamental basis for this strategy is that the guerillas are a bug, not a feature; a parasite, not the body.
First, has there ever been an insurgency in history (OK, I’ll give you the MRLA in Malaya) that hasn’t included substantial numbers of the "population they prey on"? Is there any reason or empirical evidence that these fighters are NOT Cadmus warriors springing from hatreds and grievances between groups, rather than infiltrators from the outside "preying" on the population? Do we have anywhere an external source of intel … that provides this supposition with factual support?
Second, consider Sun Tzu’s maxim: the ultimate is to defeat the enemy without fighting, that is, to have such an advantage in preparation and intelligence that the enemy is offbalance and defeated before the first shot is fired. Conversely, if our goals and the knowledge of the enemy is not just lacking but wrong, the blow has already gone astry before it begins. If our fundamental assumptions regarding the source and strengths of the enemy are wrong, how will anything else we do be right?
The rest is here. The other comments are worth a look as well. Alas, I think the surge is premised on a fantasy – that the Iraqi "people" exist, that they want to be free from a civil war foisted on them by "outside agents," etc. There is no Iraqi people and there are no Iraqi security forces. There are Shiites and Sunnis and any number of bewilderingly fractured, irredentist entities within them. That’s the problem. It has no solution.
The Dish 