Revisiting “The Bell Curve”

A reader writes:

The latest flap with James Watson appears to be playing bigger in England than the US, and I think you are picking up on that. I was really surprised that Wikipedia had the scoop locally. Normally a story like this would be covered by all the MSM and the columnist would have material for weeks. But there is a caution here that traces itself back to the Bell Curve. I read The New Republic Bell Curve edition that you edited and had not read the book or been familiar with the authors. TNR pretty much ripped the book down and kept it out of the discussion for a long time. I have not seen in the 13 years since then, another book with such an intense reception or discussion.

So I finally had to get the book and read it. It was relatively cheap in paperback and had been updated. It was a lot more complex and nuanced than I expected. Murray and Herrnstein were careful in their conclusions. It was hard to argue with a lot of their data and examples. What wasn’t hard to understand was the reaction to the discussion. You were not allowed to appear discuss this. It was off the table and a reinforcement of the ‘Political Correctness’ movement gathering steam.

I took the New Republic’s criticism as a little deeper analysis of social policy in general. In science the Uncertainty Principle places limits on what we can know and what we can do at the Sub-Atomic Level. The Bell Curve was suggesting the Social Policy had limits, and that is really what the rage was about.  For the last 100 years America had seen explosive growth in the standard of living and the distribution of wealth.  We’ve spent generously to help the middle class succeed.  Not just welfare, but GI Bill, Education, Immunizations and Social Work.  Especially with the Civil Rights movement as these benefits were expanded to the last Americans.

My theory was partially reinforced when Welfare Reform was initiated. If anything in the book was to be taken up as something worth changing in social policy it was the encouragement of young poor mothers to have more children via Aid to Dependant Children. Clinton, at Gingrich’s urging, practically implemented the changes in social policy advocated in the Bell Curve. Add the University of Michigan Admissions Policy challenge to the Supreme Court and America was certainly implementing a lot of Bell Curve corrections to our social policies.

And Charles Murray was gaining in stature. On C-Span you could not get through the phone lines to comment on his latest work. I did not see any substantial criticism of his work.  Other studies on Meritocracy seemed to reinforce the ideas in the book. As more genetics was understood, the book held up. Murray was correct that not all well intentioned ideas are going to succeed.  They need to be reviewed and examined in details.  As Dr. Watson said last week:

"Our wanting to reserve equal powers of reason as some universal heritage of humanity will not be enough to make it so."

Yes there are dangers in starting the dialog about race and intelligence. Patricia Berne is correct that new ideas like this get twisted to conform to political views.  But there is a greater danger. The Conservative Movement in America has read the Bell Curve and watched social policy and is implementing a lot of it’s policies. The Left is ignoring them and pretending they will go away. Murray and Hernstien may be correct, and Watson’s work may confirm it. The Left should be looking to see how they can adapt to this reality, before they get left behind.

As always, your intuition on the subject is correct. Something has to give.

Larison On Huckabee

A GOP uniter? Ahem:

"Except the economic conservatives, restrictionists, libertarians and conservative opponents of the war. Other than that, he’s golden."

Reihan comments here; Ross here. Larison unpacks his thoughts at greater length here. (Serious issue: Ross likes Gary Bauer! I watched him at the FRC shindig. Shudder.) I can see the problems with the fair tax. But some kind of radical simplification of our insane tax system is overdue. At least Huckabee is raising the issue. He is, alas, a big government Christianist. But unlike the big government Christianists in the Bush administration, he actually paid for his paternalist largess in Arkansas with … taxes. I thought the current GOP argument is that the Lord will provide.

Dolchstoss Watch

"Are Democrats so cynical that they would stir an already boiling pot in hopes that it would negate whatever success America may finally be having in quelling terrorist acts in Iraq? One would hope that is not the case, but given their leadership’s rhetoric about the war already being lost and their refusal to acknowledge even the slightest progress in Iraq as positive lest it reflect well on the Bush administration, cynicism about their cynical actions might be justified." – Cal Thomas, picking up from Charles Krauthammer.

The Robots Of War

They’re here already. But are they ethical? Do they follow the laws of warfare (those rules that aren’t waived in advance by the Decider, of course)? A big PDF thumbsucker is now available for perusal on the matter. And one mil-blogger has some issues with it. I’d be happy if we could have a president who abided by the Geneva Conventions myself. I guess I’m quaint in that respect.

Now In Paperback

"As engaging as it is provocative … It is — unsurprisingly — on matters of religion that he’s at his most persuasive. "The Conservative Soul" is grounded in Sullivan’s Conservativesoulpbc tenacious Catholicism, and, as a staunch atheist, I’m impressed by his ability to write plainly, unmawkishly, even movingly, of the intermittent presence of Jesus Christ in his life. He reveres the antiquity of his church, loves the mystery and beauty of its rituals, cherishes the play of nuance and paradox in its theology, but is engaged in a running battle with the present occupant of the Episcopal Palace in Vatican City, Benedict XVI, over the issues of abortion, homosexuality, and, crucially, the role of individual conscience… Sullivan swashbuckles his way through these issues with what seems to me an enviable command of both the relevant science and the relevant theology…

What is so timely about Sullivan’s book, and why it should be read closely by liberals as well as conservatives, is its embedded firsthand report on the widening ideological cracks in the house that Rove built — a building that Rove used to boast was permanent and impregnable, and that Sullivan now makes look like a tottering fixer-upper," – Jonathan Raban, New York Review Of Books.

You can buy the book, just out in paperback, here.

Live-Blogging Bennett and Giuliani

Dave Weigel listens. This on Rudy:

It’s not excruciating, but it’s close. Giuliani clearly has a few applause lines embedded in this thing, and when he hits one he looks up very fleeting for some audience member who’s finally come around. He’s met with some scowling granny or a guy with his arms crossed over a Target-bought suit and tie.

From Dave’s excerpts, Bennett seems even more shameless than usual:

This is amazing: Bennett’s entire speech is crediting Screwtape with the perfidy of liberals and libertarians. Screwtape "might advise" us to do the litany of crimes assigned to Alan Colmes: Abiding by the Geneva conventions, inviting Ahmedenijad to Columbia, so on down the line.

Yep: he also uses the flag pin issue unironically against Obama. They will demagogue anything, won’t they?

A Huckabee Landslide

Huckabeestephaniekuykendalgetty

David Brody has a pretty important post on the FRC poll. It turns out that Ron Paul’s strong showing, as often, is related to the Internet. The onsite straw poll shows something quite remarkable: a landslide for Huckabee:

Mike Huckabee     488 …    51.26%
Mitt Romney          99 …     10.40%
Fred Thompson      77 …       8.09 %
Tom Tancredo       65     …   6.83 %

Romney is the man the Christianist elites thinks has the best shot; but the rank and file like Huckabee, a man who does not believe that human beings evolved from apes. Brody:

Huckabee is poised now to really take off. Why? Two words: Sam Brownback. With Brownback out of the race, many of the votes may go to Huckabee. That could translate into some marginally better poll numbers. Plus, Huckabee can claim victory here and go around the country saying that social conservatives have spoken and that he’s the guy. Romney will make that same claim but don’t tell me for a second that the onsite margin differential doesn’t have some in the campaign concerned. Maybe because Huckabee is financially challenged, they’re not too worried.

Meanwhile, Lowry swoons for a protectionist:

Wow. Let me repeat: Wow. What an incredible communicator. His message has gotten stronger with the accent on Buchanesque nationalist/protectionist notes, and he speaks the language of these kind of voters better than anyone. I found myself getting goose-bumps near the end of his speech when he invoked a long series of Biblical underdogs, beginning with David and his five smooth stones. He made as strong a case as possible for putting all pragmatic considerations aside and going with him. And no one could mistake the shots at Romney, including a reference to candidates who have as many positions as Elvis had sizes to his waist-band. Watch out in Iowa.

(Photo: Stephanie Kuykendal/Getty.)