Weigel checks in:
The sense here is that Romney is melting away and McCain is heading to a 10-point win. Something similar’s happening with Clinton-Obama, but not as dramatically. Huckabee is poaching a bit of the protest vote that would otherwise go to Ron Paul. There are people at these events who want a family man, or a guy who’d abolish the IRS, and after Iowa they see Huckabee as more electable.