Tom Edsall has some interesting analysis of New Hampshire:
"Anytime you’ve got white undecided voters pulling the lever choosing between a white and a black candidate, that is when the race issue is most important," notes Drew Westen of Emory University. "Both campaigns’ internal polls showed a 10 to 12 point Obama lead; to see that evaporate into a three-point loss, when he didn’t have any gaffes, that has a ring to it."
According to Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, "The failure [of polling] on the Democratic side has to do with the fact that Clinton ran best among groups of voters who most often refuse polls — poorer, less well-educated people. These are also the very people who are reluctant to vote for a black candidate."