A reader writes:
Bainbridge is focused on finding a way to package the problem to help his friends at the polls. He needs to focus on a way out for us; indeed, we all do. The public debate so far is "the surge is working" vs. "the surge failed." This is infantile nonsense. There are two tracks, which must be considered independently. One is the military track. Here the military has performed consistently with plans, but at a very dramatic cost (I am talking more about treasure than blood, but the latter is not to be dismissed lightly).
The second is the political track. This has been a disaster. The situation has gotten continuously worse through 2007 because of the political disintegration in Iraq.
The centrifugal forces are more troubling than most seem to believe. It’s not simply Kurd v. Sunni v. Shiia. The Shiia themselves are hopelessly fragmented. The US has all but completely lost its influence within the Maliki Government (this is the reason for the steady trickle of coup rumors). Remember that Baghdad refused to go to Annapolis. That was a calculated slap in the face to Bush, just on the point on which Baghdad thought they could most embarrass him. Just think about it–how do you manage to do this with such massive resources in cash and such a powerful military presence at your fingertips? It’s a demonstration of the unequaled incompetence of the Bush Administration. And into this vacuum of failing American power steps Iran, exercising more robust influence than ever before. And that in turn eggs the Saudis and Gulf Arabs to their undercover dealings with the Sunnis.
So the US military achieved its military objective at great cost. But political ineptitude means that the US will have frightfully little political gain from the military’s sacrifice. We are looking at a situation in which our friends are ever more eager to wish us away, and even our friends are afraid to be publicly associated with us. This is a disastrous result.
But how many analysts take the time and make the effort to look just a little deeper into the situation? The superficiality of the coverage and debate is frightening. Iraq is a very big deal. The threat to us is enormous. And there are no obvious or easy solutions, none. It will be a matter of picking the least bad of a series of horrible alternatives. Bush is to blame, of course. Let’s note that for the record. But let’s be focused on finding our way forward in a field of quicksand.
The Dish 