Marc:
If Obama keeps his pledged delegate lead to around 150, Clinton needs to win 70% of them on May 6 — and if not, 80% of them after May 6.
That’s more than next to impossible.
Obama supporters are already starting to spin to the effect that tonight changes nothing, that Hillary remains a huge underdog and she’s likely to pick up very few delegates tonight. All entirely true, which is why the damage done here to Obama is so needless. Obama supporters have to be crying on the inside.
She wins by 9.4% — a number Clinton supporters round up to call it a double-digit win, and Obama supporters round down for the opposite reason. Clinton’s victory was decisive and impressive, but the margin fits nicely into that middle ground. It’s big enough to give Clinton a boost, but not big enough to change the overall dynamics of the race. It’s big enough to keep the campaign going for quite a while, but not big enough to compel uncommitted superdelegates to get off the fence.
Regardless, Hillary’s vanity campaign will continue on, trailing in delegates, trailing in the popular vote, trailing in enthusiasm and money, but not lacking in the firm resolve that only Hillary can save us all from our selves.
She will pick up an estimated 200K popular votes, cutting Obama’s overall popular vote lead to 500K.
If Hillary Clinton had fallen short of expectations, she’d be out of it. If she had exceeded expectations, there’s a real chance that things would shift in her favor.
Instead, she exactly matched expectations, and now the good people of Guam are about to get 24/7 political ads. Welcome to American presidential politics, Guam. Don’t worry, it will be over soon.
The Dish 