It’s very, very white, has a big working class population, and appears to be leaning Obama by double digits. One Poblano nugget that struck me:
When the election cycle began, Obama was actually outperforming Clinton in Republican-leaning districts. In a district with a rating of R+10, for example (one where George Bush performed ten points better than his national averages), Obama would be expected to win by roughly 8 points. But now, the same district would be expected to go to Clinton by 8 points. Conversely, however, Obama would be expected to win a Democratic-leaning district that he might have lost before.
This helps to explain how polling in New Jersey and California, two states with fairly liberal-leaning electorates, now suggests that Obama might have won those states.
I think Obama’s more liberal base now – as opposed to January – is partly a function of the Fox-Rove right’s campaign against him, rather than any actual positions he’s taken since then. Same with Clinton’s new-found "conservatism." It’s all relative. But Obama needs to re-orient himself to the center to maintain the deep, independent appeal he had in the earlier days of the campaign.
The Dish 