Month: July 2008

The GOP Brand

by Chris Bodenner
Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), who’s battling a tough re-election against Democrat Kay Hagan, won’t attend the GOP convention because she has a "busy week scheduled."  (Perhaps, like her husband, she doesn’t want to jinx McCain.)  Erin McPike recently reported that nine (Dole makes 10) of the 12 Republicans in the most competitive Senate races are avoiding the national spotlight in St. Paul.

Tofu Is Subjective

By Patrick Appel
Jonah Lehrer summarizes a study:

A new study suggests that you should think about biting your tongue: According to the researchers, how we feel about a sausage, regardless of whether it’s soy-based or beef, says more about our personal values than about what the sausage actually tastes like. In fact, most people can’t even tell the difference between an ersatz vegan sausage and the real thing. (It should be noted, though, that not all vegan products are equally deceptive: a soy hot dog, in contrast, only fooled 37 percent of subjects. And I’m guessing the soy ice cream fooled nobody.)

Running Against Congress, Ctd

By Patrick Appel
A reader writes:

So Krisol’s making a balance of power argument here–if you don’t want the liberal crazies tramping all over unfettered and free, then vote McCain.  Fine, I think six years of Republican control have taught us some great lessons about what life is like without gridlock, but rhetorically that’s a tricky jig to dance to.  McCain can run against congress all he wants, but it’s a bad idea for all the reasons you stated and two more.  Sure, historically Congress has low approval ratings, but individual Senate and House member approval ratings almost always fall along state party lines and stick around the mid-40s/50s/60s.  Point is, conventional wisdom and individual polling says Americans are far more likely to favor their own rep over all of "congress".  Which makes it tough to separate the two when you’re stumping locally–especially if your stumping with a local candidate in tow.  And for all of the complaining we do about congress according to the polls, state-by-state we’ll keep electing many of the same people.

Second reason is he’s a member now, and has been for quite awhile.

So I’m not sure where he’s going to draw the line in the sand here.  Given his maverick status, he’s been an integral player on both sides of the aisle and has proudly stated so many times for many bills.  Given the large amount of distrust on the right about McCain, I’m not sure they’d endearingly view him as a strong check against a Democratic majority.  Hell, right now they don’t view him as a strong check against appointing an anti-Roe judge, either.  Additionally, part of his experience argument lies with his years in the Senate, and blasting the institution he’s lived in for years clashes with where his experience lies. 

Like I said, tough rhetorically to make, and it just doesn’t seem like it would resonate.

Where Iraq Is Now

By Patrick Appel
Poulos’s take:

The ground game is changing in Iraq. Policy convergence is appropriate. As I’ve said, the choice is not between empire and defeat. I supported the surge because it was good military tactics, but good military tactics had been nested within rotten political strategy in Iraq almost since the outset. (Predated by, even.) My support for a ninja-like stealth reverse surge, a parceled and staged withdrawal in times and places of our choosing, now seems like a prescription of prudence and normalcy.

Unknowables

By Patrick Appel
Matt makes a good point:

Basically, predictions range from Obama winning narrowly to Obama winning easily with one guy calling it a toss-up. In other words nobody thinks McCain is likely to win. My take on this is that the election is more unpredictable than the "Obama in a landslide" crowd thinks primarily because the fundamentals themselves are unpredictable. I don’t think it’s likely that there’ll be a marked turnaround in economic conditions over the next few months, but macroeconomic trends are famously hard to forecast. Similarly, none of us really know what’s going to happen in Iraq over the next few months. Elections are primarily determined by the fundamentals, and thus are in that sense more predictable than journalists usually imply, but it’s not as if the fundamentals are all that easy to predict.