Month: September 2008

Michael Scherer:

The backlash has not yet had an impact on voter’s perceptions of McCain’s credibility though, with the press emboldened, that could change. But to date, the numbers don’t show it. In late July, the Real Clear Politics average of McCain’s favorable rating stood at 53 percent, with 34 percent of voters saying they held an unpopular view of McCain. Since then, his favorability rating has gone up three points, while his un-favorability number has gone up just more than a point.

My sense is McCain forfeited his greatest asset last week. What the Obama camp must do, in my judgment, is both lay out their proposals for the economic, national security, and climate crises, while hammering this ad home about John McCain’s trashing of his own reputation.

You can always respond with a letter like this:

“Please forgive me for not accepting your rejection letter. At this time I cannot accept a rejection of my short story. I accept more than 99 percent of the rejections I receive. Many I don’t agree with, but I realize that accepting a piece of fiction for publication is a very subjective judgment call. My acceptance of your rejection letter is also a subjective process and therefore I am returning your letter to you.

I did read your letter. I read every letter I receive. Your letter was well-written, but due to time constraints from my own writing schedule, I am unable to make editorial comments. I do make mistakes. Don’t you, as an editor, be disheartened by this role reversal. The road of publishing is long and tedious. You need successful publications and I need for successful publications to print my stories. I will expect to see my story in your next publication. Good luck in the future.”

(Hat tip: Helen Rittelmeyer)

Nate Silver’s advice:

To defuse the Sarah Palin Phenomenon, Democrats need to explicitly give voters permission to both like her as a person and then also not vote for her.

But the press and the blogosphere first need to find out as much about her as we can – so voters can make up their minds with fact, not mere feeling.

McCain is first out of the gate with a banking crisis ad and a new slogan:

The Economist gives a run-down on Lehman and the financial crisis:

Even if markets can be stabilised this week, the pain is far from over—and could yet spread. Worldwide credit-related losses by financial institutions now top $500 billion, of which only $350 billion of equity has been replenished. This $150 billion gap, leveraged 14.5 times (the average gearing for the industry), translates to a $2 trillion reduction in liquidity. Hence the severe shortage of credit and predictions of worse to come.

Indeed, most analysts think that the deleveraging still has far to go. Some question how much has taken place. Bianco Research notes that while the credit positions of the 20 largest banks have fallen by $300 billion, to $1.3 trillion, since the Fed started its special lending facilities, the same amount has been financed by the Fed itself through these windows. In other words, instead of deleveraging, the banks have just shifted a chunk of their risk to the central bank. As spectacular as this weekend was, more drama is on the way.

Boulder, Colorado, 10.30 am. (Disclaimer: views from car windows are only allowed in very, very rare instances. Vertical photographs are also rarely accepted. Window views including rainbows, children, or animals are immediately disqualified. The Dish does not endorse photographing while driving. In fact, the Dish can’t drive.)

Frum continues his streak.

This may be a sign of things to come:

Firing by Pakistani troops forced two U.S. military helicopters to turn back to Afghanistan after they crossed into Pakistani territory early on Monday, Pakistani security officials said.

The incident took place near Angor Adda, a village in the tribal region of South Waziristan where U.S. commandos in helicopters raided a suspected al Qaeda and Taliban camp earlier this month. "The U.S. choppers came into Pakistan by just 100 to 150 meters at Angor Adda. Even then our troops did not spare them, opened fire on them and they turned away," said one security official. The U.S. and Pakistani military both denied that account, but Angor Adda villagers and officials supported it.

This is the first truly devastating and powerful Obama ad of the fall campaign. Play it again and again, guys. It will resonate especially with the independents who once liked McCain and now see the hollow cynic he has become:

What we are dealing with in detail I am not professionally qualified to discuss (I’m not Sarah Palin, I know my limits.) But what we are dealing with in the grand scheme of things seems pretty simple. The US has been living beyond its means. The US has been spending and borrowing as if its economy were fiscally secure; and the demand for more and more from below combined with signals of total laxity from the top has led to a massive over-reach in terms of personal and public debt. In the end, gravity and reality count, whatever the Bush-Cheney propagandists want to insist.

Like the invasion of Iraq, for which the US is still paying; like the massive Bush tax cuts, which were never matched by cuts in spending but combined with massive increases in spending; the home-ownership-as-speculation bubble eventually hit the reality this country’s leadership has for so long denied.

Greenspan says what is obvious: that we cannot afford McCain’s continued tax cuts and minimal spending restraints. We cannot afford Obama’s spending plans either – but at least he isn’t proposing to increase the debt. Neither candidate has been behaving with the gravity this crisis demands. But McCain’s trivial, deceptive, distracting tactics have been by far the worse.

I wonder if Rick Davis could tell us again whether he thinks this election should be about personalities, not issues.