Obama’s First Test – Next Week?

Should he win, Robert Kaplan thinks Iraq will test Obama’s mettle immediately:

I fear a measurable uptick in violence in Iraq if Obama wins on Tuesday. The uptick will be significant enough to muddy the results of the surge, and the president-elect, rather than respond vigorously, will be tempted to say "I told you so" and thus win the Iraq debate with his Republican critics. The upturn in violence, he will be tempted to argue, only means we need to get out of Iraq even faster.

But that would be a mistake.

It would quietly telegraph weakness to our adversaries around the world, even as it would be deniable as an overt crisis that the incoming administration needs to respond to. The last thing the incoming administration should want is to be seen as retreating in the face of adversity. That would embolden adversaries. And also, to retreat quickly in the face of rising casualties and human suffering in Iraq would be irresponsible.

I don’t mean to argue that we have to stay in Iraq to see the thing through, a la John McCain. I mean only to suggest that Obama and Biden, if elected, will — on the morning of Nov. 5 — immediately have to act like leaders rather than like candidates. And that means emphasizing what Obama mentioned only in passing in the second debate: that our withdrawal from Iraq must, of course, be responsible and as events permit. For as former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has said, we as a nation will be judged by the way we leave Iraq to the same degree that we were judged by how we entered it.