Month: November 2008

They show a narrow victory for marriage equality: 52 to 48. Every ethnic group supported marriage equality, except African-Americans, who voted overwhelmingly against extending to gay people the civil rights once denied them: a staggering 69 – 31 percent African-American margin against marriage equality. That’s worse than even I expected. Whites, on the other hand, clearly rejected discrimination: 55 to 45 percent. Latinos were evenly split. But what matters, of course, is the margin of all the votes. It’s still an exit poll, and those polls sometimes under-estimate anti-gay sentiment. So no assurance. But some provisional hope. If marriage endures in California, this debate is over – in America and the world.

Oh, and there was no gender gap. And a massive generation gap: the under-30s voted for marriage equality by 67 to 31 percent. The over 65s voted for discrimination by 57 – 43 percent.

Jim Burroway is blogging all of the marriage and adoption amendments. I’ll be up until Proposition 8’s result is declared. But we’re now one bottle down. And just popped the next.

It was very classy, very moving, and finally worthy of the man we once thought we knew. Alas, his crowd was as ugly as he was gracious. I fear what will now become of the GOP.

10.54 pm. Initiatives easing marijuana laws are outpolling Obama in Massachusetts and Michigan. People are less afraid than politicians.

10.52 pm. You drinking yet? Stupid question. I haven’t touched a drop. Honest. But I’m close. It’s been a long year since that Atlantic piece. 10.51 pm. The next time I’m on CNN, I’m going to insist on a hologram. 10. 50 pm. Bitter, Party Of One. 10. 45 pm. Fox calls Virginia for Obama. It looks good in North Carolina. Not all the South is resistant to change. 10.33 pm. Virginia is very close but the northern counties have not reported fully. Obama is probably going to win it – but more narrowly than expected. 10.20 pm. North Carolina is a nail-biter. So’s Indiana.

10.18 pm. Decriminalization of small amounts of marijuana is winning big in Massachusetts.

10.03 pm. Evangelicals move to Obama in the rust-belt. But the Southern Christianists harden toward McCain. The GOP will become more fundamentalist, more Southern, and whiter after this election. They now have the power in a shrunken GOP.

9.54 pm. A senior McCain aide tells Ambers: "At this point, we need a miracle."

9.51 pm. It’s looking grim for marriage equality in Florida. But they need 60 percent and Miami-Dade isn’t in yet.

9.47 pm. Florida is still closer than expected. Seniors went for McCain by eleven points. And whites went for McCain in all age groups. Obama’s edge comes from women, Hispanics and African-Americans. But Obama won moderates by 55 to 43 percent. Across the country, Obama’s strength is among moderates. He won this election in the center, moderates disgusted with Bush and eager for change.

9.38 pm. In Ohio, Catholics split down the middle – 51 to 47 for McCain. In Pennsylvania, Obama won Catholics 51 – 49. The Vatican failed to corral voters into the Republican column. I’m watching Fox News now. They insist that America remains a center-right country. I think they’re right. But the GOP is no longer a center-right party. It’s a fringe religious, Dixie-based, big government machine, that relies on fear of others to win elections. And so it lost in a center-right country. And a center-left candidate beat them.

9.36 pm. Medical marijuana is looking strong in Michigan. Sanity slowly seeps through.

9.30 pm. Ohio! Obama won every age group under 60. He won 64 percent of the under-30s. This is Obama’s achievement; but it is also Karl Rove’s. 

9.23 pm. McConnell will win, we’re told. So no massive blowout. But we should remember: he was the Senate Minority leader in Kentucky. That it’s news that he held on is pretty grim for the GOP.

9.20 pm. A note of caution from Mark Steyn:

By the way, before we get carried away here, according to the Real Clear Politics guys, right now in terms of actual votes McCain’s holding his own: McCain/Palin 50% Obama/Biden 49%.

What would Republican partisans do without RCP?

9.18 pm. With exit polls like this, how does McCain win Ohio?

9.17 pm. Yes, the map was too annoying. Got rid of it. Georgia goes for McCain. My one theoretical monetary bet is lost.

9.10 pm. Is the Google map annoying?

9.08 pm. One of the most principled Republicans in the Senate, John Sununu, is gone. He will be missed – but a man like him has little place in a thoroughly Dixie-fied party. But after that Liddy Dole "God’s for me" ad, I’m delighted she is toast.

9.03 pm. McConnell is still hanging on for dear life.

9.01 pm. Schmidt did discuss Palin, it turns out:

QUESTION: And the pick of Palin for you guys? Are you happy with that?

A: You know, we’ll uh, I’m not going to do, there’ll be time for all the post mortems in the race.

FOLO: But are you happy with what she’s done for the ticket?

A: I think that, you know, I think we’ll know in a few hours what the results are, you know and I, there’ll be a time for all the post mortem parts of it. That’s not this afternoon before the polls close.

(Photo: Grant Park, Chicago, election night, by Eric Thayer.)

The exit polls show they went for Obama over McCain by 58 to 39 percent. If the exit polls are right, Obama’s going to win Indiana. Which means it’s over. I can’t yet quite believe it. But my self-protective denial is slowly breaking down.

Pretty staggering. Obama won women, black and white, by 54 to 46 percent. Meanwhile, CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama.

Ambers has the exit poll data:

Hispanics (projected to be 13% of the electorate in 2008) are giving Obama a 10 point margin; Bush won Hispanics in Florida by 12 points in 2004. Seniors seem to be breaking more heavily in favor of John McCain. Obama has a narrow edge among women; the two are tied among men in the exits.

So how does McCain win it?

Ben Smith:

ABC calls Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama, based on the exit polls; CNN is waiting to project. If ABC is right, that’s more or less the ballgame. Without those two states, the scenarios for McCain become increasingly exotic: He needs to win in Western states he’s losing, or he needs to steal a state in the upper Midwest.