Jonathan Singer gets his hands on some Fox data:
These numbers are very early, but at first glance it appears that Obama is doing significantly better among white men than John Kerry.
Gawker finds that exit polls in swing states are closer than expected. Not sure where they are getting their numbers. But Drudge says exits show Obama by +15 in PA.
The transcript of his final press talk. He doesn’t sound that confident:
It’s the only way to finish anything that you do in life, that’s a competitive venture, which is full speed. . . . We did our absolute best in this campaign in really difficult circumstances. We had some tough cards to play all the way through, and we hung in there all the way. You look back in the middle of September, [the] economic collapse of the country, a number of different things.
We did the best we can in historically difficult circumstances from a political climate. It is entirely doubtful that anyone will have to run in a worse political climate than the one John McCain had to run in this year. And we have a path to victory. We are going to know what it is in a few hours. But certainly on a personal level I am very proud to have a chance to be associated with John McCain. He’s a hell of a good guy. . . .
The global economic collapse in the middle of September occurred at a time when we were ahead in the race, dropping the right-track number to roughly 5, 6, 7 percent, which are numbers that I don’t think will ever be seen again in any of our lifetimes. It was a bad economic environment throughout the election, where people were angry at the incumbent party. At the end of the day, I don’t think there is another Republican that the party could have nominated that could have made this a competitive race the way that John McCain did. It’s one thing we know for sure is that at a Congressional level the Senate Democratic majorities and the House Democratic majorities will expand. The party has been very unpopular. The president’s approval numbers were not helpful in the race. But the party as a whole is unpopular with the American people, and that was a big albatross.
No mention of Palin.
Ross takes the words out of my mouth:
Even though I don’t really see any way that McCain can win this thing, I’ve been conditioned – by the stalemate in 2000, by the exit-polling disaster in ’04, even by New Hampshire flipping for Hillary this year – to assume that some sort of bizarre election-night twist will keep us up till three AM, half-drunk and reeling.
The notion of an election where the anchors know who’s won by mid-afternoon, and where the suspense for television viewers ends early (when Virginia and Pennsylvania both go Obama’s way, perhaps), seems like something old-fashioned, something retro, something out of my childhood that couldn’t possibly happen in the crazy world of twenty-first century America. So while my rational mind expects an easy Obama win, as of this morning my irrational mind is suddenly convinced that come nine PM tonight, some furrow-browed announcer will be remarking on his this is much, much closer than anyone expected …
A reader writes:
I’m a Washington State resident living in Spain. While I closely read and watch American coverage of the election, what’s incredible is the international enthusiasm the election has generated. The European news outlets are following the returns state by state. People on the street are positively giddy at the prospects of an Obama presidency. Teens in the local public middle-school my daughter attends are studying the two-party system and the Electoral College. The level of voter participation in America’s presidential elections is clearly inspirational to the Europeans. I’m proud of my country.
Another from Montreal:
I have no special anecdote, but there is an unmistakable feeling of anticipation coursing throughout the city. Trendy bars are devoting the evening to election watching. Perhaps most of all, there is an enormous sense of pride in what our close friends and neighbours are about to accomplish.
Nate Silver makes his final predictions.
A reader writes:
I got up early this morning in hopes of beating the crowd. I expected turnout would be far greater in this election cycle, but not that different from my previous experiences. I could not have been more wrong. When I arrived at my polling location at 6:30 I was greeted by an overflow crowd which formed outside of the church where voting was being held. There were middle aged white men in business attire, African-American senior citizens, middle aged white women and young people of all colors quietly conversing amongst each other while waiting for the opportunity to cast their ballot. I’m not usually one to get too emotional but after hearing a middle aged African-American man talk about how this was the first time he’s ever voted, I was struck about how deep the change moniker truly runs through this campaign.
A great deal has been made about this election being a referendum on George Bush but I think it runs much deeper than partisan politics. This election is about inspiring segments of the population that have long eschewed politics because they felt alienated by the system. It’s a living demonstration to children of all colors and ethnicities that America truly is the land of opportunity and that if they work hard there is no limit to what they can achieve. It’s an opportunity to strike back at the politics of personal destruction, xenophobia and anti-intellectualism.
Noam Scheiber theorizes as to why there was no bin Laden tape this election:
…in the final week or so before today’s election, Obama appeared to have a pretty insurmountable lead. Even if a bin Laden tape would have narrowed the margin, it probably wouldn’t have made a winner of McCain. In which case it would have exposed bin Laden to be kind of impotent.
Brian Schaffner says to keep an eye on Virginia:
Virginia may tell us more about this election than any other state. Not only does the map look very difficult for McCain if he loses Virginia (particularly if the networks can call it relatively quickly), but the demographics in Virginia can provide us with some useful insight into what may happen in other states.
In 2004, exit polls indicated that African Americans made up 21% of the Virginia electorate. Will that figure improve in 2008 and, if so, by how much? What will the party id figures look like? In 2004, 39% of voters said they were Republicans compared to 35% who were Democrats. Democrats would like (and probably expect) to see those numbers flip in Virginia just as they are looking for party id gains in other high growth states like North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
I’ll be watching Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. If he goes down early, it’s a blowout.
Alan Jacobs, a subscriber to the "seamless garment" ethic, has a hard time voting:
I don’t understand my fellow Christians who are enthusiastic Republicans; I don’t understand the ones that are enthusiastic Democrats either. When I try to talk to either group about the ways their preferred party upholds — indeed, even celebrates — policies that simply cannot be reconciled with Christian teaching, I get the same shrug. Yes, they are certainly more “realistic” than I am; they may have a better understanding of what it means to live in a fallen and broken world. But they are all too sanguine for me. They aren’t sad enough. There aren’t enough — I recently taught the Aeneid, which brings this line to mind — there aren’t enough lachrimae rerum, tears for how the world goes.
Oh, get a hanky, read some Niebuhr and get on with it.
A reader writes:
It took just thirty minutes from my place in line until I thanked the polling staff and left. People in line were quietly smiling at each other. Most were young. An even mix of black and white. A young father with an infant let a blind lady cut in front of him in line. A man with a "No on 8" shirt was zipping up his sweatshirt to cover it up as he took his place in line. It felt like we were a part of something huge. It felt like we were making history.
As Faith, the poll worker, said as she handed me my ballot: "Now, go get your vote on!"
If you haven’t yet, there’s still time.
The Dish 