Month: November 2008

Tonight looks as if it will be Karl Rove’s crowning achievement, the election that will define his legacy for the GOP:

The Republican Party will have transformed itself from the Party of Lincoln into the Party of the Old Confederacy. We will find that John McCain has achieved his best results in the Old Confederacy—to which only a sprinkling of thinly populated states of the Plains and Mountain West will be added (states that share strong demographic similarities with the “Confederate” states). The core of the congressional G.O.P. will be drawn from the Old South. Moreover, surveying the party’s leadership from the last decade, the predominance of white male Southerners will be clear. The 2008 elections will likely see Republicans falling to their Democratic adversaries in New England (which is now unlikely to return a single Republican to the House of Representatives), the Midwest, the Southwest, and the Pacific states.

Ruffini looks at where Obama is outperforming Kerry. Darker blue indicates how much better Obama is doing, not whether Obama will win the state:

Ruffini adds:

Obama is likely to do better than John Kerry in every single state, even Kentucky and West Virginia that shellacked him so in the primaries. This is simply the national atmospherics and the political environment. "The map" does not dictate his ability to win or lose. It only dictates what order he wins those states in. We sometimes focus on "the map" to the detriment of everything else. But in reality, any topline outcome is possible given the right environment. And if you doubt it, just remember that a guy with the middle name of Hussein could pick off one or two Deep South states on his way to the White House.

Could Mickey finally get his dream candidate – an anti-illegals Hollywood pariah with major boobage? Know hope:

According to [Mark] Krikorian [head of the right-wing Center for Immigration Studies], once Sarah Palin is free from the McCain campaign, she will be able to speak freely about the immigration issue. “There’s a real possibility, once Senator McCain is history, that she will likely take a much more hawkish position on immigration,” he adds. “Now maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part — it’s possible, but I don’t think so.”

More gay-baiting by Democrats.

Sarah Palin discusses how she and her husband cope with being subjected to racial discrimination. Seriously. A total loon.

Poulos has some election day ruminations:

…it’s ridiculous to hold Obama’s election over the heads of those who would dare to vote against him: taking away every nonwhite kid’s shot at true self-esteem! HOW DARE YOU?!?! etc.

And indeed, I’ve heard it put this way — not just a matter of inspiring black kids (which of course is an awesome idea that all of us should be more involved in), but "hispanic, native American…". Unclear again whether Asians make the cut, even though on NPR a few days ago some savvy character was insisting quite reasonably that he considered Obama, given his upbringing, to be Asian American, not African(-)American. People who won’t vote for Obama because they disagree with him aren’t shattering anyone’s dreams. If that’s what politics has become in this country — you annihilated my future! – then we really do need a long collective night in the drunk tank. Anyway, some but not all, but still too much, of the Obama enthusiasm is keyed to a different tense: the present, not the future, the in-the-moment and of-the-moment, not the year after tomorrow. Obama knows his election wouldn’t chase politics itself out of Washington in addition to the sitting administration.

This one never fails:

Robert A. George is the latest to announce.

Nate Silver made a guide for election night.