After The Collective Bush Puke

Reihan continues his election blogging:

Assuming Barack Obama wins, as looks very likely, I’ll be rooting for him to lead the country through a difficult period. Of course I’ll criticize and cajole him with the help of my tiny soapbox. But I certainly won’t be looking to tear him down. And as I noted in my last post, I think that partisan intensity matters and I really just want America to have a breather after eight traumatic years.

He adds later:

America is a strange, diverse, sprawling country, and our elections reflect that fact. There are loyal black Democrats in California who will turn out for Obama and who will also vote yes on Prop 8, a measure that will strip a non-trivial number of married couples of their rights. There are lukewarm Republicans who will turn out because they believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim. There are good and decent people who believe crazy, bigoted, terrible things. And they are part of this process. I don’t think we do any good by demonizing each other. Let’s forcefully argue against equal marriage rights, let’s educate people about the canard that a believing Christian is somehow a Muslim, or, for that matter, that American Muslims like yours truly represent a danger to democracy in the first place. But we have to find some way to live with each other. Good grief.

The View From Your Election: Scotland

Ballot1

In the first of what I hope will be many missives today, a reader writes:

Thought I’d send along my voting experience as an American living abroad, since reading yesterday’s late post about the experience in Ohio.

My idea was simple; my mom would field my absentee ballot and post it out to me in Scotland. I would fill it in, and send it back. Easy. But one does not plan for the vagaries of international post at such a heightened sense of mental urgency.  So when California mailed out the absentee ballots on 6 October, I was on it. Called my mom: is it there? No.  October 7: Is it there? No. October 8: Is it there? Mom: ‘How about I call you when it’s here?’  Mental images of all the most horrible, egregious methods of voter suppression flashed at me. Had I broken some rule of absentee voting? Did they know I was abroad and not in Cali?  Was I….purged?

No – I got the happy call, finally, beginning my daily vigil at the mail slot, waiting… hoping… whispering to myself, Yes We Can. Okay, not really, but after 4 years of living abroad, witnessing firsthand America’s waning international clout, I am ready for change. I don’t consider myself overtly patriotic, but there’s only so much casual animosity one can take about the state of one’s country. The Bush Administration is, to put it very politely, not well-received abroad.

My absentee ballot took over two weeks to get here. My poor mother received increasingly desperate calls about the state of the envelope and the number of stamps she put on it – even double-checking the address that she’d sent it to.  All fine, but she clearly thinks I’m nuts.  So, when it finally arrived, I was beyond thrilled. I opened it with some ceremony, showing it to my Scottish colleagues, who are all very interested in the voting process Stateside. There was general merriment – they all knew my postal woes. With a flourish, I bubbled in my vote for President.  My friend Claire, smiling, said in her lilting Ayrshire accent, ‘Aye, and that’s for all of us.’   So, this one’s from me, and several Scottish postgraduates in Glasgow.

Georgia

Sean Quinn:

If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia’s presidential race in 2004. Let that sink in.

If I were to place one actual monetary bet on this election, it would be on Georgia. The odds are very much against Obama winning it – but they are longer than they should be. And what a moment for history that would be if, by some chance, it happened. A lot of African-Americans in the history of Georgia would be looking down from heaven and rubbing their eyes in disbelief.

States To Watch

Ken Silverstein gives some pointers on what to look for tonight:

If Obama wins North Carolina, expect him to romp to a huge victory as that would suggest that a number of closely contested red states go Democratic.

An Obama victory in Florida or Virginia would also be fatal to McCain. Victory in both augurs a landslide. If he loses both, it would suggest that the electoral map is reverting to form and we might be in for a long night.

John McCain can’t win unless he takes Pennsylvania, which should be a key early indicator. Because if Obama loses Pennsylvania, it’s hard to see him winning in places like North Carolina or Virginia anyway.

I’ll be watching for McConnell in Kentucky. If he’s safe early, we are in a normal election swing. If he goes down, all bets are off.