Month: November 2008

Walid Phares sizes up the perpetrators:

In view of the historical context, precedents and latest analysis, the most likely groups that may be behind these attacks are the Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (they now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). These groups are Jihadists, have links to the other organizations in Kashmir but also inside Pakistan with pro-Taliban elements and eventually Al Qaeda. The ideological identification is most likely Jihadist although the group almost surely will issue a more than one release to claim the attack and put it in context.

According to Indian sources this is an operation of a very new type in India. The "emirs" have sent these armed elements in their 20s to strike at Indian psyche. One goal is to sink the Pakistani-Indian rapprochement. In Islamabad, the new Government is engaged in operations against the big Jihadi boys on the north western frontier. It is quite possible that the Mumbai attacks aim at triggering tensions between the two old foes so that pressure would be released against the radicals in Pakistan. In any event, this is a large Jihadi operation against one of the emerging economies and the largest democracy in Asia. The goal is to target India as a power engaged in the War on Terror but also to further destabilize the region, including Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan.”

The Mumbai carnage (AP video above) is distrubing enough. Asia blogger Chris Devonshire-Ellis’s analysis of the consequences arguably more so:

If Pakistan truly wishes to turn back the tide of fundamentalism in its country, and stop exporting violence overseas, then it must have proper support and assistance from India. Yet the concern is that if last night’s atrocities in Mumbai turn out to be Islamic backed, violence and retribution could ignite across India. The nation possesses a larger Muslim population than Pakistan, and much of the area around the Crawford Bazaar in the heart of Mumbai remains steadfastly Muslim – Mosques and Minarets abound, as do bushy beards, skull caps and women wearing burkhas. Anti-Muslim feelings here if uncontrolled in the wake of these terrorist attacks would be devastating. Tens of thousands could die.

India, and Mumbai, must be on their guard against such feelings and act quickly to defuse tensions that are bound to be running high. Violence against Muslims in Mumbai if incited would make what has occurred the past 24 hours look like a Sunday promenade walk. The sooner India and Pakistan publicly announce a joint, high level work force to defuse the situation and engage in some serious counter-intelligence in anti-terrorism activities between the two countries, then the sooner the sorts of scenes that has been displayed across the world the past few hours can be put to one side, and the basic fundamentals of a peace accord between factions within the two countries finally be implemented. It needs to happen fast.

Just don’t get too emotionally attached:

The SOFA in Iraq has passed. Last minute haggling from nervous Sunnis managed to come to some resolution, although the details of that negotiation are not yet clear. Perhaps of concern: the voting did not convey a sense of unanimity, as Sistani wanted, with only 198 deputies showing up out of 275, meaning a 149 out of 275 margin. The good news is that the US gets to leave the plave by 2011, as the Iraqis insist. The key test will be the stability of the place, if any, as US troops withdraw. We may have a fragile national consensus to get rid of the occupiers, but we do not have a serious reason to believe that the deepest issues between Kurds, Sunni and Shia have been resolved.

In Thanksgiving Tradition, Bush Pardons Scooter Libby In Giant Turkey Costume

Alexis Madrigal applauds science for super-sizing your turkey dinner:

The traditional Thanksgiving dinner reflects the enormous amount of change that foods and the food systems that produce them have undergone, particularly over the last 50 years. Nearly all varieties of crops have experienced large genetic changes as big agriculture companies hacked their DNA to provide greater hardiness and greater yields. The average pig, turkey, cow and chicken have gotten larger at an astounding rate, and they grow with unprecedented speed. A modern turkey can mature to a given weight at twice the pace of its predecessors.

In comparison with old-school agriculture or single-gene genetic modification, these changes border on breathtaking. Imagine your children reaching full maturity at 10 years old.

Not terribly encouraging:

One big worry stifling activity in the markets is that if the government is doing so much lending and backstopping now, it’s going to need to do a lot of borrowing, too, to finance those efforts. And if the government is seeking lenders to buy its debt, what is going to happen to other borrowers looking for lenders?

As the Federal Reserve and Treasury act to rescue borrowers, Simons said, ”they’re starving other private sector borrowers.”

And so the attempt to resolve the credit crunch also crunches credit.