I’m not sure whether the big drop in bank stocks yesterday was a function of general nervousness (bad) or sinking realization that bank shareholders are not going to have a good year (not-so-bad). But it does seem pretty clear that the central psychological response to the first three weeks of the Obama administration is alternating between a sense that we have to do something immediately and a deeper sense that we have to get it right. With a crisis as complex as the economic meltdown and a world as fluid as it is in the Middle East, this is going to mean a bumpy ride. Overall, it seems to me a good thing that the process so far has allowed for a great deal of debate and scrutiny and skepticism. We should not be rushing to spend $800 billion without serious circumspection (that’s what we were doing for much of the Bush administration); we shouldn’t be declaring an instant solution to the banking crisis (there isn’t one without massive risk); we shouldn’t rush in to any major diplomatic initiatives until leadership in Israel and Iran sorts itself out; and we shouldn’t simply decide to throw thousands of more troops into Afghanistan without very careful assessment of the minimal goals.
So far, Obama has had a mixed success on the expectations game. The Inaugural helped deflate excessive expectations of instant nirvana on many issues; but the build-up for Geithner was a screw-up.
At the same time, we know now the broad parameters: a big blast of crude demand to provide some sort of bottom in the downturn; a complicated attempt to isolate the toxic assets of the banking system, without straight nationalization right away; an end to torture but a review period of other intelligence and interrogation policy.
Not exactly instant gratification; but also, in a way, serious. There is no magic wand. This will all take time. And the proof will be in the results a year or two years hence. As the president said yesterday:
“I’m not going to make any excuses. If stuff hasn’t worked and people don’t feel like I’ve led the country in the right direction, then you’ll have a new president.”
The reason his approval remains high, I suspect, is that Americans just elected him and feel he deserves a chance. I agree with them, and urge a little patience. This is a mighty big hole we’re in. And he’s a president, not a messiah.
(Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty.)
The Dish 