The New York Coup

Two Democrats in the NY senate defected and returned control to the GOP. Is the marriage bill dead?

If gay marriage had the 32 votes it needed to begin with, it would also have the votes for a "motion for consideration" to bring it to the floor. The problem is that gay marriage only had about 20 or so enthusiastic supporters, and under the current conditions my guess is that most the other 12 are going to be careful about making any false moves, even if you might find a couple of sympathetic Republicans who were planning to vote no on gay marriage but were nevertheless willing to bring it to a floor vote.

From the Daily News, one interpretation:

Another rumor du jour is that Diaz, who is furious that the gay marriage bill he opposes appears to be gaining some traction in the Senate, would be angry enough with Smith if the measure comes up for a vote on the floor to join the Senate GOP. I asked Diaz about that, and he said: "Today? No. Tomorrow? Who knows? Tomorrow is another day. It's always another day. You ask me do I plan to do that. I say, no. In the future, who knows what the future brings." "The only thing I can tell you, and you can interpret this any which way you want: When I give my word, I keep my word. In order for me to break my word, you have to break yours first."…

It's a (typically) cryptic way of Diaz Sr. confirming the worst fears of marriage advocates – that there was indeed a deal between himself and Smith that the gay marriage bill would not come to the floor in exchange for Diaz Sr.'s support of Smith for majority leader. And now, in Diaz Sr.'s mind, if Smith brings the bill to the floor, all bets are off.