Month: July 2009

Some interesting GDP analysis from EPI:

Despite the overall contraction, the fingerprints of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act could be seen in some aspect of today’s report. Federal government spending grew at an 11% rate in the quarter, adding roughly 0.8% to overall GDP. State and local government spending grew at a 2.4% annual rate, the fastest growth since the middle of 2007. It is clear that the large amount of state aid contained in the ARRA made this growth possible.

Furthermore, real (inflation-adjusted) disposable personal income rose by 3.2% in the quarter, after rising by only 1% in the previous quarter. A large contribution to this increase was made by the Making Work Pay tax credit passed in conjunction with the ARRA, as this was the first full quarter that the credit was in effect. Inflation-adjusted transfer payments (including a one-time payment to Social Security recipients)  rose at an annual rate of over 6% in the quarter as well…

The consensus of macroeconomic forecasters is that ARRA contributed roughly 3% to annualized growth rates in the second quarter. This means that absent its effects, economic performance would have resembled that of the previous three quarters, when the economy contracted at an average annual rate of 4.9%. In short, the recovery act turned this quarter’s economic performance from disastrous to merely bad. This is no small achievement, but with even more public relief and investments, the U.S. economy could do much better.

And the good news is that the two-year time-table for the stimulus to take full effect means that more is to come. The bad news is that the private sector is still in a hell of a hole and the debt is exploding. Ambers' take on the politics is here. Megan's response:

• Happiness is relative
• This number will be revised, probably downward
• Consumer saving continues to rise, and probably will for a while
• Employment isn't going to recover for quite some time

An interesting scoop from Eli Lake, whose national security reporting remains among the best in DC. I don't always agree with Eli, but he's always honest and his sources are deep.

Eight. I have to note, however, that all four attendees – Biden, Crowley, Gates and Obama – have Irish ancestry. The addition of Biden was perfect. This is what he's there for: to be a bridge to men called Crowley.

Ta-Nehisi reacts to Gates's "beer summit" statement:

The obsession with a "dialouge around race" is nauseating. I can't tell if it's real, or just a notion that (much like "postracial") that cable news hosts put to their guests. But it's an extension of this notion that Barack Obama created this America we see right now, as opposed to him being a product of it.

I've had many "teachable moments" around race in the past fifteen years. Very few of them have been inaugurated from up on high. No president could teach me what I learned walking down Broadway to Canal Street, what I learned out on Flatbush. At least not through words. […] People in search of teachable moments, ultimately need to–and will–teach themselves.  It's all all out there.

Will Albania legalize marriage equality?

Drum's jaw drops:

Nate Silver convinced me that the public option is not the devil awhile back. The effect of healthcare costs on the private sector and our seeming inability to stop them has pulled me over to taking this position seriously. Pure pragmatism given the fiscal and economic costs of the status quo which are simply unsustainable. Sure, I'm worried the government might abuse their market power, but there could be ways to limit that. David Brooks strikes the right tone:

I’m not crazy about the public plan. I dislike the idea of the government competing in a marketplace it regulates. I think the temptation to subsidize the public entity will be overwhelming. But I’m not vociferously against it either. That’s because:

A.) I’m not that thrilled with the insurance companies.

B.) I think it will save money, but not that much (the C.B.O. agrees).

C.) (!) I think it will produce small administrative efficiencies.

Lexington, Kentucky, 11.30 am

A reader writes:

I was listening to “Here and Now” on NPR [yesterday] afternoon. There was a story about a Guantanamo detainee named Mohammad Jawal, and my jaw dropped when host Robin Young said, “Previous attempts at trying Jawal failed when judges threw out evidence obtained under torture.” Yes, she actually said the word which must never be spoken.  It’s even in black and white on their website.

I’m going to write the NPR ombudsman and complain about this blatant violation of NPR policy. How dare she use the English language properly!

NIAC passes along a parting video from yesterday's protests:

The person taking this footage is stating “in every corner and every intersection there are people setting fires and they [basij] are running amongst them, who are even more confused.” You can also hear the popular chant from the demonstrators against Mojtabah Khamenei, calling for his death before he could take the office of the Supreme Leader.