How Many Shoes Are Left To Drop?

by Chris Bodenner

Juan Cole recalls the terror alerts – a "sort of treason":

Back in the bad old days of Bush's corrupt gang, we on the left were pilloried for suggesting that the administration was manipulating terrorism-related news in order to win the 2004 elections. But when Tom Ridge says it . . .

In fact, I argued in summer, 2004, that when Ridge did raise the terrorism alert, it had the unfortunate effect of outing an al-Qaeda double agent who had been turned by the Pakistani government and was helping set a trap for al-Qaeda in the UK.  […] And if any of us had said that Dick Cheney was setting up civilian mercenary assassination squads (at least 007 works for the British government), and set things up so that perhaps neither the CIA director nor the president even knew about it, we would have been branded moonbats. But well, that is today's story. You shudder to think what hasn't come out yet.

Everyone Is A Winner

by Patrick Appel

Katherine Tiedemann rounds up the news coming out of Afghanistan post election:

Unofficial reports suggest a close race between Karzai and his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, and both are claiming a first-round victory, which will likely prolong election season (Pajhwok, Times of London, and VOA). A low turnout and widespread reports of fraud could make the real victors the Taliban, if their campaign of pre-election violence and intimidation is able to "rob the vote of its legitimacy and the new government of its mandate" (Wall Street Journal).

Do Big Governments Mean Big Recessions?

by Conor Clarke

Alan Reynolds of the Cato Institute has an op-ed in this morning's Wall Street Journal making the sweeping argument that "bigger governments lead to bigger recessions," and thus cannot and should not help alleviate recessions.

His assembled evidence doesn't really pretend to be scientific. (It consists of a few historical anecdotes alongside data showing the size of government and the depth of recession in a bunch of OECD countries and a couple of developing nations, selected on the basis of I don't know what.) And there's no particular reason to think Reynolds' single, lonely measure of a recession (decline in GDP) is the best. (There is, for example, the change in employment, which would make for a very different international comparison.)

But let's charitably assume Reynolds' data magically ascends to the level of an incontestable biblical truth: Nations with bigger governments experience longer and deeper recessions. And now let's think about just how little this would prove.

First, all statistical joykills are fond of pointing out that correlation does not equal causation. Even if it were true that there was a tight historical correlation between the size of governments and the length of recessions, this would not prove that big governments cause (or "produce" in Reynolds' parlance) longer recessions. It could be the case that longer recessions produce bigger governments. Or it could be the case that some third factor produces both. A statistically significant relationship between the size of government and the length of recession is no more proof that one causes the other than is a statistically significant relationship between global temperature and the number of pirates.

Second, even if there were a causal connection between the the size of government and the length of recession, this wouldn't prove Reynolds' second point: that government spending cannot alleviate a recession. Even if you think government is the worst invention since the death panel, you should still be open to the proposition that government fiscal policy can make up for losses in aggregate demand.  (And, indeed, 90% of economists believe exactly that.)

Jon Stewart vs. Betsy McCaughey

by Patrick Appel

Worth watching:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Betsy McCaughey Pt. 1
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor Healthcare Protests

Part two after the jump:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive – Betsy McCaughey Extended Interview Pt. 2
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor Healthcare Protests

Tort Reform Won’t Fix Healthcare?, Ctd

by Patrick Appel

A reader writes:

Tort reform in Texas was supposedly passed to decrease the incentive for people with non-meritous claims to file lawsuits.  The real effect however, was to decrease the incentive and the ability of those with meritous claims to file lawsuits. Our courts already have numerous mechanisms in place to dismiss non-meritous cases. There's motions to dismiss, summary judgments, and the contingency-fee agreement, and judges have the ability to issue directed verdicts. Tort reform isn't about cheaper health care, it's about legislating away financial risk to insurers, which exist solely to assume responsibility for that risk.

All the evidence available shows that the liability "crisis" is a myth.  Malpractice payments account for less than 1% of the nation's health care costs each year. Since 1987 medical malpractice insurance costs have risen just 52% despite the fact that medical costs have increased 113%. The size of malpractice damage awards has remained steady since 1991. Adjusted for inflation, the average malpractice payment has actually decreased since then. The number of payments for malpractice judgments of $1 million or more has never exceeded one-half of one percent of the annual total number of malpractice payments dating back to 1991. 

The only evidence supporting claims of a liability crisis is anecdotal; hearsay propagated by lies from malpractice insurers who tell doctors their premiums are high because of out-of-control malpractice claims.  Yet data (pdf) show that the medical liability system produces rational outcomes. The great irony of the tort reform argument is that if the proponents of tort reform ever went to court to argue their case that frivolous lawsuits have created a liability crisis which threatens our health care system, their case would be thrown out as frivolous. 

Proponents of damage caps fabricated a liability crisis in Texas earlier in the decade to push through tort reform.  Yet malpractice premiums continued to rise, and didn't decrease until many of the Texas politicians who had supported tort reform began taking heat and demanded that the malpractice insurers lower their premiums.  They're lower today, yet patients haven't seen any reduction in health care costs, and there's no evidence that the rise in costs has been slowed by tort reform.  Doctors are still practicing defensive medicine.

Meanwhile, thousands to tens of thousands of Texans with meritous claims are unable to find lawyers to take their cases because it's no longer financially feasible for the lawyers to do so.  If a child dies, there's no economic damages, and that child's life is worth $250,000 maximum.  If a retired person dies, they're worth little more.  As someone who lost their father to malpractice, I have trouble deciding whether it's hilarious or infuriating that the "death panel" crowd, who likely all support tort reform, apparently have absolutely no problem legislating the value of someone's life.

This data is in the study I linked to above:

Only 8.61% of doctors who made two or more malpractice payments were disciplined by their state board.

Only 11.71% of doctors who made three or more malpractice payments were disciplined by their state board.

Only 14.75% of doctors who made four or more malpractice payments were disciplined by their state board.

Only 33.26% of doctors who made 10 or more malpractice payments were disciplined by their state board.

Most doctors are good doctors, but there are enough bad ones out there ruining it for the rest.  Only a third of the doctors who are found guilty of malpractice on 10 different occasions are disciplined by their state board?  Even cops, notorious for protecting their own, would be shocked by that.

Meanwhile, an estimated 98,000 patients die each year from preventable medical errors and another 99,000 die each year from hospital-acquired infections.  Even if only 1/4th of those instances were malpractice, that's nearly 50,000 people a year that tort reformers would like to deny justice.

Another reader writes:

You write:

"If you are unable to work for the rest of your life because of medical errors, a few hundred thousand dollars, the cap on damages in some states, isn't going to do near enough to compensate you for your loss, especially if you have ongoing medical needs."

I would have to check on this, but my understanding is that the caps associated with tort reform are on punitive damages.  Plaintiffs still get compensatory damages (which include the costs of lost wages and furture medical care) in states that have capped punitive damages.  Punitive damages, as the name suggests, are designed to punish mal-practicioners for sloppiness or willful negligence.  They necessarily go beyond what is required to make the plaintiff "whole."  Some states (like Texas) have capped punitive damages at a fixed number, e.g. $500,000.  Others have used formulas that restrict punitive damage awards to a certain percentage of compensatory damages.

Capping punitive damages makes sense to me, as long as there are exceptions for truly egregious "beyond the pale" malpractice.

(Full disclosure:  I am attorney representing the plaintiff in a medical malpractice case at the moment, though I normally do not do this kind of work.  Immigration is my main practice area.)

States have different laws, and punitive damages are capped in some states, but this lawyer isn't entirely correct. The tort reform I know best is California's Malpractice Injury and Compensation Reform Act (MICRA), which passed in the 1970s. California caps pain and suffering, which are compensatory damages, at two hundred and fifty thousand. This cap has not been adjusted for inflation and doctors are allowed to pay out damages in installments. It's true that my first post was misleading: in California at least, medical bills and life time wage damages are not capped. In my defense, the lawyer's fee will take a chunk of those damages. On the other hand, the plaintiff's award is not taxed.

Pundits like to talk about frivolous cases, but as the first reader above writes, there are already mechanisms to deal with such cases, and overall lawsuits improve safety. For years construction site accidents were bread and butter cases for a lot of personal injury lawyers. Eventually, the construction companies got tired of paying for these lawsuits and implemented better workplace safety rules, which reduced lawsuits and was better for everyone (besides the lawyers). The truth is it's very difficult to successfully sue a doctor; you have to prove that not only that the doctor made the wrong call, but that he did something no other competent doctor would do. I don't deny that defensive medicine happens, but it doesn't appear that tort reform is going to do much to address it. After considering the evidence that has come in, I have to say that tort reform seems like a fake solution to the health care crisis. I'm open to new evidence and arguments, but it's not clear that tort would do anything to prevent medical costs from spiraling. A few years ago, RAND had a report on California's tort reform. Here's a highlight:

When their awards are capped, plaintiffs typically lose many hundreds of thousands of dollars. Certain types of claims and plaintiffs are most affected by MICRA:

Death cases are capped more frequently than injury cases (58 percent versus 41 percent) and have much higher percentage reductions in total award size than injury cases, with a median loss of 49 percent when the award is capped versus a 28 percent drop for injury cases.

Plaintiffs with the severest non-fatal injuries (brain damage, paralysis, or a variety of catastrophic losses) had their non-economic damage awards capped far more often than injury claims generally and had median reductions exceeding $1 million (compared with $286,000 for all injury cases).

Plaintiffs who lost the highest percentage of their total awards due to the cap were often those with injuries that led to relatively modest economic damage awards (about $100,000 or less) but that caused a great loss to their quality of life (as suggested by the jury’s million-dollar-plus award for pain, suffering, anguish, distress, and the like). These plaintiffs sometimes received final judgments that were cut by two-thirds or more from the jury’s original decision.

Plaintiffs less than one year of age had awards capped 71 percent of the time, compared with 41 percent for all plaintiffs with identifiable non-fatal injuries. Injury cases with reductions of $2.5 million or more usually involved newborns and young children with very critical injuries.

What Would The Greatest Generation Do?

by Chris Bodenner

The potential transfer of detainees to Standish, MI, has quickly become the central issue in the '10 gubernatorial race. One of the candidates – and perhaps the only Republican in either Michigan or Kansas to buck the party line – is state Senator Tom George of Kalamazoo. Here's his take:

The Standish prison is a maximum-security facility with an excellent safety record. There are legal precedents for housing federal inmates within Michigan, and it may be possible to negotiate a favorable intergovernmental agreement. During World War II, Michigan was the site of more than a dozen prisoner-of-war camps. We accounted for approximately 20 percent of America's armament production. … Despite the risks of making Michigan a military target, our citizens did not hesitate to aid the war effort.

Such tough-minded pride and patriotism is sorely lacking in this debate.

The Presidents Women And The Bomb

by Patrick Appel

NIAC tries to understand what Ahmadi is trying to say by appointing three women to his cabinet:

Although this is the first time in 30 years after the 1979 Revolution that Iranian women are allowed to serve as cabinet ministers, some female activists like Fatemeh Haghighatjou and Parvin Aradalan believe that this does not affect the fundamental situation women face in Iran.  According to them, the appointments are mainly a “tactic” by Ahmadinejad to soften the harsh language against him by the opposition side.

On the other hand, his choice of these three conservative nominees could simply signify Ahmadinejad’s desire to control the leadership of three important ministries that mainly cover and serve the middle class families in Iran who turned to become major Mousavi supports during and after 12 June election.

In other Iran news, the country has allowed International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back for the first time in a year.

Dolchstoss Watch

by Chris Bodenner

Yesterday I attended the "Anti-Gitmo" town hall in Standish, an impoverished Michigan town whose prison is closing. Congressman Pete Hoekstra, a Republican gubernatorial candidate from the other side of the state, characterized the funds offered by the Obama administration for a detainee transfer as "40 pieces of silver." (The setting of a Catholic church gave it some added flare.) Never mind that the Roman authorities actually gave Judas 30 pieces of silver to betray Jesus, the analogy remains: Standish will sell out the safety of the American people for its economic self-interest.

(For other details from the meeting, see the local paper and WaPo.)

The Party That Kristol Built

by Patrick Appel

Joe Klein takes the gloves off:

To be sure, there are honorable conservatives, trying to do the right thing. There is a legitimate, if wildly improbable, fear that Obama’s plan will start a process that will end with a health-care system entirely controlled by the government. There are conservatives — Senator Lamar Alexander, Representative Mike Pence, among many others — who make their arguments based on facts. But they have been overwhelmed by nihilists and hypocrites more interested in destroying the opposition and gaining power than in the public weal. The philosophically supple party that existed as recently as George H.W. Bush’s presidency has been obliterated. The party’s putative intellectuals — people like the Weekly Standard’s William Kristol — are prosaic tacticians who make precious few substantive arguments but oppose health-care reform mostly because passage would help Barack Obama’s political prospects.