Just How Much Your Vote Matters

by Conor Clarke

The National Bureau of Economic Research sent out a new paper this morning, by Nate Silver and Andrew Gelman (of the great fivethirtyeight.com) and Aaron Edlin of Berkeley. The paper asks a simple question: "What is the probability your vote will make a difference?" And the abstract has a pretty simple answer:

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. […In 2008,] The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election.

The basic takeaway here will be familiar to most people familiar with public choice economics: If your decision to vote is motivated by the sense that "one vote can make a difference," you are being substantially less rational than someone who never leaves the house for fear of being killed by a meteor. Voting is irrational.

But let's not get carried away. Voting can still send a potentially valuable signal — to elected officials and to each other — that we care about civic engagement and democratic accountability. That civic expression can still make us feel good. And there are still strong moral reasons to do it. Sure, the cost of your individual decision to stay home on election day might be insignificantly small, just as the cost of an individual decision to litter or touch a delicate painting in a museum might be close to nonexistent. But I wouldn't want to live in a world in which no one voted and everyone littered, for the fairly simple reason that there's a difference big between what's individually "rational" and socially beneficial.

UPDATE: I should have been clearer in the original post. The paper in question doesn't make the argument that voting is irrational. (Indeed, Andrew Gelman emailed to make clear that he thinks it can be rational.) The point about irrationality was my gloss, although I certainly stand by it.

Yglesias Award Nominee

by Patrick Appel "Contra Rush Limbaugh, history’s actual fascists were not primarily known for their anti-smoking policies or generous social welfare programs. Fascism celebrated violence, anti-rationalism and hysterical devotion to an authoritarian leader. To date, the Obama administration has fallen rather short in these departments.

Perhaps uncomfortably aware of the shortcoming, the hardliners have developed — okay, invented really — their own mythology about Obama “brownshirts.” (The popular conservative website RedState.org literally uses the term.) The complaint rests on a single case — that of conservative activist Kenneth Gladney, who got into a scuffle at a townhall in St. Louis, Missouri. The altercation was captured on video and you can watch it on YouTube. What you’ll see is a man, already on the ground, and another man stepping back in order to avoid tripping over him. The man on the ground is Gladney. Gladney walked away from the confrontation and later went to hospital, where he was treated for light injuries and released the same day. Whatever happened and whoever started it, this happily bloodless encounter bears not even the most glancing resemblance to the brutality that made Hitler’s brownshirts notorious. And yet, look up Gladney’s name online and he’s suddenly a poignant martyr.," – David Frum, New Majority.

A False Bottom?

by Patrick Appel

First-time home buyers are rushing to buy a home before November 30th to get the $8,000 federal tax credit. CalculatedRisk thinks this is unsustainable:

Expect a surge in existing home sales (and some new home sales) over the next few months. Expect prices at the low end to rise (simple supply and demand). Expect all kinds of reports that the bottom has been reached. Expect the frenzy to end …

The View From Your Sickbed

by Patrick Appel

A reader writes:

With all due respect to the reader who related the story about her father’s delayed gastric bypass operation, I have to inject some qualifiers into the situation. First, I am speaking as someone who recently received insurance company approval for the lap-band procedure, which is a similar, although less invasive, form of gastric surgery.  My operation is in two weeks, and I was pleasantly surprised when my insurer (I have a policy via my employer, which is a small group) rather quickly approved the pre-qualification request from the surgeon, and even set me up with a case manager for counseling and nutrition information.  I will have some significant out of pocket expenses, but I calculate that I will recoup that cost in what I save on medications over the ensuing year or so.

Ten years ago, gastric surgery was considered quite exotic, and had only recently made it past the experimental stage and been FDA approved for the general public.

It was also open abdominal surgery, as opposed to the current lap-band procedure, which is done laparoscopically, so it had an unusually high complication rate.  My brother had it done nine years ago, and complications put him in the ICU for five days; I knew two acquaintances who had complications about that time and died as a result.  So it was a very costly and very problematic surgery back then.  Thankfully, there have been a lot of advances since then—otherwise, I would never consider it for myself.

At the same time, science has learned more about obesity and its causes, and what they have learned has only reinforced the understanding that gastric surgery is an effective way to deal with obesity and its many side-effects, such as those the reader’s father had.  While switching to Medicare probably played a role in the ease of getting the surgery approved this time out, the passage of time, which has proven the efficacy of the surgery and improved its safety, surely played a role.  In short, while I am certainly no apologist for health insurers, I think they deserve somewhat of a break on this one.

More Guest Blogging

by Conor Clarke

It's been a difficult four-week absence from the Dish, but it's great to be back here and guest blogging — thanks to Patrick and Andrew for the second chance. It's also great to be here with Peter Suderman, whose hospitality and BBQ skills I have taken advantage of at least twice. And while I absolutely cannot and will not tell you what Megan McArdle is really like, I can offer a little background: I'm a correspondent for the Atlantic, and I've worked previously for Brookings, The New Republic and the Guardian, and I am about to abandon the profoundly lucrative journalism industry to move to England and become a graduate student in economics.

I did a pretty flakey job responding to Dish emails last time around, but I think I learned my lesson and can do better this time. So, caveat lector: My email is conorjclarke@gmail.com, my twitter feed is here and my other Atlantic blog is here. Please nag me about anything. I've been in India for most of the past two weeks and got back home to DC last night, so I need to catch up on what's been going on in the world. (What's all this stuff I hear about health care?)

Placing Bets

by Patrick Appel

Nate Silver previews 2010:

While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3). The Senate picture is a bit brighter for them, but they are probably more likely now to lose seats in the chamber than to add to their majority, in spite of the spate of Republican retirements in Ohio, Missouri and other states. In a wave-type election, a net loss of as many as 4-6 seats is conceivable.

Ditching The Public Plan?

by Patrick Appel

Maddow's take on the politics of sacrificing the public plan, should it happen:

[If] the president decides that he's going to go with a reform effort that doesn't include a public option, what he will have done is spent a ton of political capital, riled up an incredibly angry right wing base who's been told that this is a plot to kill grandma…and he will have achieved something that doesn't change health care very much and that doesn't save us very much money and won't do very much for the American people. It's not a very good thing to spend a lot of political capital on.

Marc asks Maddow some questions and then tries to understand what giving up the public plan would mean (more in that vein over at 538). Marc then quotes an administration official saying that Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius "misspoke."

Stupid Teenagers Probably Not Ruining American Movies

by Peter Suderman

The two best movies I've seen this summer, District 9 (which I reviewed for Reason here) and The Hurt Locker are both smart, inventive, relatively low budget action films. Both are clearly products of directors with strong, clear, and unusual visions that somehow snuck through the Hollywood production pipeline largely intact. That this is a rarity in American studio filmmaking and even more so in summer action films hardly needs to be said. And as a sometime-critic, regular moviegoer, and devotee of summer movies, both small and large, I rather obviously wish that this weren't true.

Yet I can't agree with Roger Ebert's contention that, essentially, dumb Americans—and in particular, dumb teenagers—are ruining the U.S. film industry. His evidence basically boils down to the box office scores for three films—Transformers 2 and G.I. Joe, which critics hated but made big bucks, and The Hurt Locker, which critics loved but has been comparatively little seen. 

Granted, he also complains about the dearth of good satire, the general lack of interest in old media, and the perception of movie critics as an out-of-touch elite (which he agrees they are, but doesn't think that's a bad thing). But all in all, it's pretty thin stuff. 

Take, for example, his primary gripe, the relative box office failure of The Hurt Locker: Critically beloved films fall through the cracks all the time, and it's not as if audiences are going out of their way to irritate the nation's critics: Star Trek and Up, for example, were widely praised and did great box office. Moreover, Ebert totally ignores the way The Hurt Locker's box office has been affected by its limited release. The Hurt Locker was released the same weekend as Transformers 2, and slowly expanded from an initial release onto a mere four screens to a 535 screen release last weekend. Transformers 2, meanwhile, hit 4,234 screens its first weekend in release. Naturally, its grosses were far higher overall: But the thing is, for the first five weekends the films were in release, The Hurt Locker far outperformed Transformers 2 on per-screen average. In other words, the The Hurt Locker played in fewer places, but where it did play, it proved extremely popular. 

Numbers aside, I think Ebert's gripes are really just a proxy for something more personal. What Ebert's really complaining about, it seems to me, are declining prospects and influence for movie critics. Critics at daily papers all over the country are being let go. And Transformers 2 was so successful, despite overwhelmingly negative reviews, that, for the release of G.I. Joe, the film's studio declined to show the movie to most critics—a move typically associated with extremely low-budget, second-rate genre films rather than with big-budget summer tentpoles. It's not much of a trend, but it does suggest that the opinions of professional movie-watchers may not matter as much as they used to.

Of course, they still matter to those critics whose livelihood comes from crafting them, which is probably why Ebert doesn't just see movies as getting dumber, but American culture and discourse as a whole: He seems to have projected the decline of professional criticism onto the country's entire cultural apparatus. As much as I love movie reviewing—reading it, writing it, arguing about it—I'm not so arrogant as to think that it's really essential to the polity, certainly not in its daily-paper, professionalized form. Call me a populist or a philistine, but, like Jeff Jarvis, I don't think it's terribly important to have a slew of full-time critics spread out through the nation. 

Anyway, as John Podhoretz recently pointed out, the golden age of newspapers and professional criticism wasn't actually so golden. And at the same time, as daily critics have been let go, amateur and semi-professional criticism on the web has already picked up a lot of the slack: Movies, and intelligent commentary about them, will survive without a small army of newspaper-salaried geeks being paid to sit in theaters all day. 

Face Of The Day

AfghanPoliceOfficerGetty3

A Police officer escorting Afghan presidential candidate Dr Ashraf Ghani campaigns looks out of the window of a helicopter on August 15, 2009 in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Afghanistan's presidential elections are to be held on August 20. Dr Ghani is considered is one of the top 5 presidential contenders but not likely to win. By Daniel Berehulak/Getty.