Month: November 2009

His lead is still solid – and he's pulling in 49 percent of the vote. The highest margin a Democrat has ever polled in the district in recent times was 38 percent in 1990. In the last election, the Democrat got 35 percent. In some ways, a Hoffman victory would, in my view, have been worse for the GOP. But this result, if it holds, suggests that the insurgency there was more of a national/Beck/Palin media reality than an actual shift. If anything, this reveals a big shift to the Dems, perhaps in reaction to the disarray and division on the right.

Yes, it feels like an England-Germany football match to me in over time or a Brit playing the fifth set tie-breaker in the Wimbledon final. If you look at the precincts that have not yet reported, Bangor is among them. Which is encouraging, if one assumes that urbanites are likely to be somewhat less anti-gay than country folk. On the other initiative, Maine has now become the third state to license medical marijuana dispensaries:

Under the measure, the state will license nonprofit organizations to provide medical marijuana to qualified patients and set rules for their operation. While 13 states permit medical use of marijuana, only Rhode Island and New Mexico have similar dispensary provisions, both of which were adopted by the states’ legislatures. Maine’s original medical marijuana law was passed in 1999.

“This is a dramatic step forward, the first time that any state’s voters have authorized the state government to license medical marijuana dispensaries,” said Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project in Washington, D.C., which drafted the initiative and provided start-up funding for the campaign. “Coming a decade after passage of Maine’s original marijuana law, this is a huge sign that voters are comfortable with these laws, and also a sign that the recent change of policy from the Obama administration is having a major impact.”

Well, I had begun to assume a big Hoffman victory. Not so fast. Owens has a small but real lead, with over 60 percent of the votes in. More interesting, Palin just doesn't poll very well in a district that is almost tailor-made for her:

43% view her favorably to 44% negative. This is in a poll with a party ID breakdown of R+14 that shows Doug Hoffman leading by 17 points. If Palin's not popular in an electorate with that mix she's not going anywhere nationally.

NY-23 is a district with an unusual number of moderate Republicans, and Palin's favorability with them breaks down negatively 53/32. She could overcome those kinds of numbers in a contest to get the Republican nomination but they certainly wouldn't be good enough in a general election. The North Country should be friendly ground for her and if she can't make it there it's hard to see how she can make it anywhere.

So the endorsement of Hoffman may not have been that big a deal.

Ambers:

The economy sucks. States are really hurting. Governors are very unpopular. Their support is going to crater.

Christie romps home in New Jersey. And McDonnell wins in Virginia. These are not big surprises. But what's truly striking is how narrow Mike Bloomberg's margin is, how close the marriage fight is in Maine, and how Owens is doing much better than I expected in NY-23. I should say this about Maine. Whoever wins this vote will do so by the slimmest of margins. I don't think it therefore represents much of a victory for either the pro-gay or anti-gay forces. It represents an essential 50-50 split. Maybe the coming results will alter that. But all we find out from Maine is that this is a very evenly divided state on this subject.

That's a staggering number from the Bangor Daily News for an off-year election. My first impulse is to disbelieve it. The marriage results, by the way, remain neck and neck.

[Update: and yes, that number has now disappeared from the site. But the turnout does appear very strong.]

How easily we forget. We get caught up in the health insurance fight, we game the Beck-Palin subculture, we chatter about Israel and Iran, we obsess about marriage equality … while the voters who do not do politics for a living are simply trying to survive one of the worst downturns in history. The votes tonight are anti-incumbent votes in protest at economic crisis and the slow pace of recovery. And they are not, it seems to me, some national referendum on Obama's first nine months. In fact, Obama's approval ratings in both Virginia and New Jersey are respectable and strong, with unemployment headed to 10 percent:

About half the voters in Virginia and a majority in New Jersey – 49 and 58 percent, respectively – approved of the way Obama is handling his job. Most in both states, moreover, said the president was not a factor in their vote.

Perhaps most striking – though simply confirmatory of national polls – were economic views. A vast 89 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they're worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year; 56 percent and 52 percent, respectively, said they're "very" worried about it.

Voters who expressed the highest levels of economic discontent heavily favored the Republican candidates in both states – underscoring the challenge Obama and his party may face in 2010 if economic attitudes don't improve. The analogy is to 1994, when nearly six in 10 voters said the economy was in bad shape, and they favored the out-of-power Republicans by 26 points, helping the GOP to a 52-seat gain and control of Congress for the first time in 42 years.

The Dems have a year to get economic recovery reflected in the polling. And the point about health insurance reform – the critical point that needs to be hammered home – is that it will reduce insecurity in very troubled times.

It's mighty close, with the pro-marriage equality forces currently a smidgen ahead with 17 percent of precincts reporting. The medical marijuana law looks like a sure-fire win.

Two high-ranking commanders of the Hizbul Mujahideen are mauled to death by a bear.

CA-10 has gotten almost no attention because it is considered a safe Democratic seat, even though it has gone to a Republican much more recently than NY-23. Nate Silver gives odds:

I might take about a 15-1 flier on Harmer — and if Republicans do win here, or perhaps even pull close enough that the outcome will be uncertain for several days as California finishes counting mail ballots, they'll really have something to crow about. With that said, I suspect that Garamendi will more likely than not win by larger than the 10-point margin that SurveyUSA projects. By the way, this race is not without upside to the Democrats, as Garamendi should be significantly more liberal than Tauscher, who has not always been a reliable vote for her party on issues like national security.