by Patrick Appel
Dale Carpenter gives his take:
If I’m right about the near-term prospects, marriage should be secure in the city. The lesson from Massachusetts and Vermont, and from California and Maine, is that the longer the day of electoral reckoning can be delayed the more likely it is that anti-SSM passions will subside. So, if gay marriage in D.C. survives 2010, it is probably here to stay.
D.C. will also be another test of the theory that, at least without expansive exemptions for religious objectors, there will significant erosion of religious liberty. The city’s Catholic leaders have already warned (some would say threatened) a loss of social services if the bill is passed because religious traditionalists who get city money won’t agree to treat gay couples equally. These losses have not materialized in other jurisdictions recognizing gay marriage or civil unions, though Catholic Charities has stopped providing adoption services in Massachusetts.
The Dish 