Quote For The Day II

"Killing them might not be helpful," – Christianist Ethics and Integrity Minister Nsaba Buturo of Uganda on plans to remove executing gay people in IUganda, in favor of rounding them up and jailing them for life, along with anyone who doesn't inform on them.

You want to know the true face of evangelical Christianism in Africa? Just re-read his remark.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Industrial-Complex

An enlightening article by Ali Ansari in The National Interest describes the Iranian Guards' business interests:

The argument that Iranian politics have become militarized makes the issue far too black and white. In fact, the IRGC has come to be in bed with a hard-line establishment made up of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and his clique, and even some journalists and clerics, meaning that the Right has coopted the IRGC as much as the IRGC has coopted them. This relationship between the hard-liners and the IRGC is long in the making, though it has been made far worse by Ahmadinejad’s arrival on the scene. We must remember this was started by Rafsanjani, when the moves into the political economy of the country were not initiated by the Guards though they have undoubtedly become enthusiastic participants. But what this means is that the IRGC is not a military junta. The Iranian state does not face a military coup in the traditional sense of the term. A more accurate categorization of Iran might be to call it the securitization of the state around the needs of an increasingly bloated business conglomerate, which confuses its own interests with those of the nation. This was in effect not the garrison state Hajjarian had warned about, but instead a mafia state writ large.

Why The Regime Is Rattled

A reader notes the upcoming calendar:

I think one way to explain the regime's brutality is by looking at the calendar. There are two important national holidays coming up, the first one is "Arba'ain" it is the 40 day anniversary of third Shia imam (who died in "Ashura" which was today), this will be also the 40 day anniversary of everyone killed today (I think it will be Feb. 5th). The second one is 11th Feb. the anniversary of Iranian 1979

revolution which is a national holiday accompanied by mass rallies.

I am thinking they are trying to preempt protests during those days by being excessively brutal today. Also bear in mind that in March Ahmadinejad's government is set to end several of its subsidies. Most importantly gasoline quotas will be eliminated and everyone has to buy at the non-subsidized price of 0.6$ per liter. Two and half years ago when they introduced rationing and quotas there were protests and gasoline stations were set on fire, imagine what might happen this time.

Faces Of The Day III

Pic13-green-women-in-haze-of-tear-gas

As before, the women of Iran have been deeply involved in this revolt, displaying astonishing courage and autonomy in the face of a regime which consigns them to subjugation. They are masked not to conceal their identities (the Baseej are mostly doing that) but to guard against the tear gas you see all around them. The Newest Deal adds:

The regime seems intent on continuing to dig its own grave. With at least 10 protesters killed — including the nephew of a former Prime Minsiter — on one of the holiest days in Shia Islam and by a supposed Shia theocracy, rage towards the Islamic Republic is understandably turning very raw. Past all the amazing things that were captured on the footage that leaked out of Iran today, perhaps what was most interesting is what was missing: any mention of Ahmadinejad. The abundance and veracity of anti-Khameini chants on Ashura should not be overlooked. The Supreme Leader (with the doctrine of velayat-eh faqih which vests him with power) has become public enemy number-one.

Cries of 'Allah Akbar' tonight are reported as being the loudest since June.

There appear to be increasing calls (and support) for a general strike, possibly beginning tomorrow. Dissident filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf has repeated these calls on BBC Persian, though he should by no means be considered a "roving ambassador" of the Green movement, as some would have him. Najafabad is rumored to be under martial law.

The Size Of The Crowds

This gives some perspective on the numbers of protestors pouring through side-streets toward Azadi Square. They were trying to meet up with others from other streets, something the Brownshirts were desperate to prevent. Leading to incidents like these hideous murders in the streets (do not click if you do not want to see human beings dying in front of your eyes:

If You’re Just Tuning In …

This is the latest video of a Baseej being overwhelmed and taken away by the crowd. Notice the way in which one of the protestors brandishes the club he has just seized from the Revolutionary Guard brownshirt.

It’s been another bewildering, inspiring, chilling day in Iran. The Dish has been live-blogging the latest phase of the Green Revolution through the night, since 11 pm EST last night.

We recommend scrolling down to the bottom and reading up to get a flavor of how today unfolded in real time. The images and videos are among the most graphic to date, so be warned. Dish policy is to provide as much information on reality as we can. Readers should also know that these videos are by their very nature impossible to confirm beyond a very rough due diligence. So again: caution. But this is an historic moment, the culmination of the biggest story of the year, even though you wouldn’t know it from the Sunday talk shows.

Why This Is Not Like 1979

A reader adds a note of caution:

The blogger you quote in the post suggests, rightly, that the 78-79 revolution had as one of its turning points the raiding of weapons stashes (note that many were opened by defecting military, police and SAVAK agents — something I saw personally). But that the army will stand down again or that the Green Wave will simply sweep into power when that happens is unlikely. The conditions are not nearly the same. In trying to explain how it was that the religious right swept into power in Iran in 79-80, scholars often note the way in which, for decades, the opposition was led by clerics and religious thinkers (Khomeini and Ali Shariati). Today, there seems to be no galvanizing idea beyond resistance to dictatorship.

Those benefitting from the Shah's policies and rule were the middle, upper-middle and the rich classes. But they had no emotional or ideological commitment to the royal line or the Shah. More still, they all abandoned the country (sucking cash out as fast as they could) as soon as they saw the tide turning. Today, the poorer urban, lower-middle and rural classes have a deep emotional and economic commitment to the right of the regime. They will not abandon the Revolution and the legacy of Khomeini and they do not seem to have any sympathy for the urban youth and their desire for more individual freedoms.

I agree that the regime is pretty hobbled and delegitimated after June and that this round of protest and violence bodes awfully poorly for the regime. But even if Ahmadinejad is, somehow, forced to step down, even if Khamenei is removed by Rafsanjani's maneuvering in Qom, and even if, and this is a pipe dream, Tehran falls because the Rev Guard and police refuse to shoot at the protesters, the country will not follow as a whole. At best, I think, we get a political solution (in which Rafsanjani makes out very well), and a more liberal, but also rhetorically anti-US, leadership replaces the current one. They would have to be Anti-US and for Nuclear power to win over enough popular support and not look like imperial tools.