The Limits Of Ideological Voting

by Patrick Appel

A reader writes:

Patrick writes:

Unwavering ideological voting, of the sort Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich exhibit, is the exception in politics for good reason.

Unwavering ideological voting is also an exception because it is usually unserious and lazy.  It is normally cast as a struggling individual hewing to his/her principles, but the world we live in is not some theoretical construct, and unwavering ideology is simply not a logical method for governing.  Problems generally require serious grappling for understanding and solutions, not a pre-existing formula.  Paul and Kucinich have difficulty extending their appeal beyond their strong supporters because of this reality, not because of special interests.

Frankly, it is this mindset– that ideologies remain constant and that a chosen ideology can be applied to any problems– that is at the heart of our sorry public discourse.  When issues are always presented as a choice between two (and it is always two) competing ideologies, then they can be discussed with almost no knowledge of the issues at hand.  Witness our Sunday talk shows, where guests (who are often experts in one field) pontificate on other topics in which they have absolutely no background.  They can do this because the debate is framed only in terms of ideology and political gamesmanship, which requires no new investigation or education, only a background in ideology that may have been gained decades ago.  As a result, we are often dumber for having watched.

What Iran Is Doing To Americans

by Chris Bodenner

On the heels of news that the regime is Kian-Tajbakhsh-press-conf2 support the allegations against him, according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, following interviews with Masoud Shafie, Tajbakhsh’s lawyer. Tajbakhsh has been sentenced to a 15-year prison term for alleged espionage and actions against national security by a lower court and is currently in the appeals stage. The case has also been substantially invalidated by gross breaches of Iranian law and international standards for due process.  […] Espionage is closely defined under Iranian law, and guilt needs to be established by evidence that highly confidential documents were passed to foreign governments. There are no references to such documents in the file.

Tajbakhsh, a renowned scholar and urban planner, was the only US citizen included in the mass show trials that followed the post-election unrest.  More information about the man here. A heartbreaking interview with his mother here.

Grappling with Immigration

by Conor Friedersdorf

In an earlier post, I recommended Jim Manzi's piece, "Keeping America's Edge," and here I want to zero in on its recommendations about immigration policy, a debate that is certain to arise again sooner or later, especially if the current economic downturn long endures.

Is there any policy question as vexing? Every American citizen is something of a gatekeeper for this prosperous land, deciding via their franchise how many others might partake of its fruits. Prudence and necessity demand some limit, but setting any limit forces us to confront the existence of extreme material deprivation — it is possible, living most places in the United States, to forget about poverty of the kind that is endemic in the Third World, whereas truly grappling with any cap on immigration requires knowingly preventing some number of people from escaping that kind of poverty.

My preference is for relatively high levels of immigration. It seems just to extend to others the means by which our forefathers arrived here; the benefits enjoyed by the average immigrant far exceeds the costs he or she imposes; and personally, I delight in immigrant culture, whether the Polish enclaves that endure in Greenpoint, Brooklyn, the Latino diaspora that's brought street mangos to Pilsen, Chicago, or the sundry nationalities you find in the East Bay — and it is no coincidence that my two favorite places on earth are California and Spain. Spend any time around representative immigrant communities and it is impossible to hear xenophobic nonsense without feeling one's blood boil, and pondering how absurd are many of the negative stereotypes served up by garden variety racists.

Of course, relatively high levels of immigration comes at a significantly lower cost to me, a writer raised in an upper middle class home and educated in Catholic schools, than it does to the lower middle class — immigrants among them! — who must compete for jobs with new immigrants, attend school in classrooms where progress is slowed by language barriers, and grapple with the higher crime rates and public health problems seen in some immigrant enclaves.

Partly for these reasons, there is a near consensus in America that unlimited immigration via entirely open borders is not viable. What frustrates me is that, among many of the folks who style themselves immigrant advocates or pro-immigration, there is an utter refusal to articulate specific, workable views about what the limits should be, let alone to abide enforcing limits that are duly signed into law. One pernicious effect is that restrictionists are the only game in town for folks who want to enforce some limits on immigration, hence the rise of demagogues like Joe Arapaio, who are able to cast their extra-legal racial profiling as a defense of American sovereignty, rather than the assault on even legal Latino immigrants that it frequently ends up being.

Even the ill-conceived, so-called comprehensive immigration reform championed by George W. Bush and Ted Kennedy, legislation that would've institutionalized a second class of non-citizen guest workers at the mercy of their employers, wouldn't have resolved questions about limits and enforcement, except temporarily. What foolishness to imagine that short term boon was worth violating what ought to be a foundational aspect of any immigration regime: that the newcomers are welcomed as full citizens with the same rights as everyone else, an obvious enough arrangement if from them one expects commensurate loyalty.

So what does Mr. Manzi recommend?

…we should reconceptualize immigration as recruiting. Assimilating immigrants is a demonstrated core capability of America's political economy — and it is one we should take advantage of. A robust-yet-reasonable amount of immigration is healthy for America. It is a continuing source of vitality — and, in combination with birth rates around the replacement level, creates a sustainable rate of overall ­population growth and age-demographic balance. But unfortunately, the manner in which we have actually handled immigration since the 1970s has yielded large-scale legal and illegal immigration of a low-skilled population from Latin America. It is hard to imagine a more damaging way to expose the fault lines of America's political economy: We have chosen a strategy that provides low-wage gardeners and nannies for the elite, low-cost home improvement and fresh produce for the middle class, and fierce wage competition for the working class.

Instead, we should think of immigration as an opportunity to improve our stock of human capital. Once we have re-established control of our southern border, and as we preserve our commitment to political asylum, we should also set up recruiting offices looking for the best possible talent everywhere: from Mexico City to Beijing to Helsinki to Calcutta. Australia and Canada have demonstrated the practicality of skills-based immigration policies for many years. We should improve upon their example by using testing and other methods to apply a basic tenet of all human capital-intensive organizations managing for the long term: Always pick talent over skill. It would be great for America as a whole to have, say, 500,000 smart, motivated people move here each year with the intention of becoming citizens.

This is an imperfect foundation for a system of immigration, to be sure, but I am hard pressed to articulate anything better, and it offers substantial upsides that are absent from the present approach.

Beyond the economic boon of high skill immigration — nothing to scoff at for a country in fiscal shape as bad as ours — a system that sought talent would do three things: 1) lessen the burden on the Americans who are least equipped to compete with immigrants in competition for jobs; 2) act as a counter to the populist notion that immigration is bad for America, thus ensuring that future immigrants will continue to be welcomed and lessening social tensions; 3) were the system set up the right way, it might also create good incentives in various countries, encouraging remittance-hungry governments to set up educational opportunities for their best and brightest, and basically extending the American dream to young ambitious people who'd perhaps think of our country more favorably given the prospect of being able to immigrate here if they reach certain meritocratic benchmarks.

On a subject as complicated as this one, I try to keep all my conclusions provisional — my mind is always open to better immigration regimes than I've considered — but I'd ask critics, whose push back I eagerly await, to answer one question: Is our current system, or some other realistic system, any better overall than what Mr. Manzi has proposed?

Who Else Will Stand In The Way?

by Patrick Appel

Megan wondered yesterday if other conservative Democrats who don't particularly want health care reform to pass will act:

Lieberman is in some ways in the easiest position–the party is not helping him get reelected, and he's going to lose his committees eventually anyway, because everyone's mad at him.  So the other weak sisters are willing to let him take the lead.  But if he gives in, will they go along, or will they just find their own reasons for saying no?

TNC counters Megan over whether Lieberman will be, or should be, stripped of his committees.

Palin-Lieberman in ‘012

by Andrew Sprung

In his serial performances as spoiler first of the public option and now of Medicare expansion, Joe Lieberman has emerged as the Sarah Palin of the health care reform debate. He doesn't even try to credibly reconcile his current statements with past ones or to give explanations for his policy proposals that would withstand even momentary scrutiny.  He's just thumbing his nose at the very notion that informed debate can shape the legislative process. 

Here's Lieberman's office "explaining" why he was for Medicare expansion before he was against it:

In a September interview with the Connecticut Post, Mr. Lieberman suggested giving people 55 and older "an option to buy into Medicare early" if they were laid off or couldn't otherwise get affordable coverage.

A Lieberman spokesman, Marshall Wittmann, said that idea was superseded when the Senate Finance Committee passed a plan that would give the uninsured, including those over 55, subsidies to buy private insurance. Mr. Lieberman's "view is, essentially, that because we have subsidies, the Medicare buy-in would be redundant," Mr. Wittmann said.

There were subsidies for those who can't afford insurance in the three House bills and one Senate bill that passed out of committee over the summer. There were subsidies in the Baucus bill, the outline of which was clear when Lieberman made his proposal in September. There were subsidies for those who can't afford insurance in every Democratic proposal since John Edwards rolled out his plan in 2007. So come again, Senator?

Lieberman elaborated to the Daily Beast:

Senator Lieberman's comment reported by the Connecticut Post in September was made before the Finance Committee reported out the Baucus bill, which contained extensive health-insurance reforms, including a more narrow age rating for pricing health-insurance premiums and extensive affordability credits that would benefit this specific group of individuals. These health-insurance reforms and affordability credits have been strengthened in Senator Reid's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and will provide even greater relief for those 55-65 years old.

The Baucus bill allowed insurers to charge older plan members four times as much as younger customers. The Reid bill allows them to charge three times as much. The House bill, twice as much. Are we supposed to believe that in September Lieberman was so worried that the Baucus bill would leave 55-64 year-olds so high and dry (and would become law, unmediated by the four more generous bills then working their way through Congress) that it was necessary to mitigate its cruelties with a proposal he now calls a budget-buster?

All of this is in any case irrelevant to whether allowing Medicare access is a good idea. The rationale for that proposal, as for the public option, was to reduce costs both for individuals and for the government. If the Medicare option, once subsidies kick in, is cheaper than private insurance offered on the exchanges, it would succeed on both counts.  Lieberman claims that widening access would "threaten the solvency" of Medicare. Ezra Klein demolishes that argument — which, if true, would have been true in September as well, when Lieberman floated his proposal.

One final  twist to Lieberman's illogic. Here's one more statement relayed by the AP:

Asked about the video [in which he proposed Medicare expansion] on Monday, Lieberman said his comments were made before the Senate health care bill, which includes health insurance subsidies, was finalized. The subsidies would make a Medicare buy-in program unnecessary because the people who could benefit would get subsidies instead, he said.

"This was before the Finance Committee came out with its proposal and I was suggesting various ideas for health care reform that did not involve the public option that was the focus at that time," Lieberman told reporters.

So…Lieberman only proposed Medicare expansion as an alternative to the public option that he feared the public option would make it into the Baucus bill. Now, three months later, when Democrats lack the votes to pass a bill with the public option and cast about for a substitute, Lieberman kills the substitute he floated in September.

Yglesias Award Nominee

by Chris Bodenner

"I'm sorry to say that Mr. Flint has a legitimate point when he raises the safety issue. Unprotected anal sex is the most efficient mode of transmission for HIV; female-to-male transmission of HIV is more difficult—and therefore rarer—than male-to-female or male-to-male transmission. If brothels hire gay or bi men, or gay brothels open in Nevada (which seems likely), the brothel industry will have to aggressively enforce the use of condoms and be even more vigilant about testing or it could face its [as Flint called it] "Pearl Harbor," i.e. HIV infections traced back to Nevada's brothels. But a legal, regulated market—brothels with male sex workers who are tested and who can force condoms onto reluctant/whiny/selfish clients by blaming house rules—is preferable to the boys-for-rent system Nevada currently has," – Dan Savage, on the opposition of brothel lobbyist George Flint to the new Nevada law allowing men to prostitute themselves. (As for the other point Flint raises – "Some may feel it’s a repugnant thing to do…" – Savage has a very different response.)

The View From Your Recession, Ctd

by Chris Bodenner

A reader writes:

To the writer who was concerned that the empty UPS store is a sign of a floundering economy, I say that it's a sign of the maturation of online shopping. I have done online Christmas shopping for a few years now.  I know what I can get, what to expect, and what kind of bargains can be obtained.  With the possible exception of one-of-a-kind handmade gifts, there's nothing I can get in a store that I can't get online. Online shopping saves me the hassle of shipping and, in the case of presents for the relatives up north I'll be seeing next week, the hassle of trying to not lose presents to TSA or the airlines.

Another writes:

The USPS has been aggressively marketing its "we'll pick up your shipment" option, and I've long since switched over to just purchasing gifts online and having them shipped directly so I don't have to deal with the crowds at the post office! Measuring the economy by the traffic at the local post office is like measuring the relevance of world events by how many newspapers the corner stand sells.

In fact, online holiday sales are up 3% already. And one imagines that a greater percentage of shopping occurs online in the closing weeks, since last-minute purchases are easiest when done at your computer.

Lieberman’s Game

by Patrick Appel

The Democrats caving to Lieberman makes this analysis from a reader all the more persuasive:

For all the talk about Lieberman's position on the health care bill, it seems that much of the analysis has ignored the fact that this might be electorally smart for Lieberman. Sure, in 2009, his derailing of health care seems like a poor choice, but by 2012, it could look pretty smart. It's likely that health care reform will pass in one form or another because it's too important to Democrats for it to not pass in some form. When that happens he can vote for it, claiming to have supported it the whole time, and at the same time, portray himself as a deficit hawk. That's the key here.

By 2012 we should be out of the woods on the Great Recession and it will be a time when watching the budget and reducing the deficit will be critical. He will then use his attacks on the health care reform proposals as evidence of his deficit hawkishness. He was so concerned that he was willing to risk something as important as health care reform because of his deeply held convictions about deficit spending. That position will do him very well by Republicans and will probably sway at least a few moderate Democrats who, in 2012, will be much more concerned about ballooning deficits than health care reform.

Furthermore, as he's launching these attacks, he's securing his place in the hearts of the private health insurance industry. He's going to need a bank roll for the 2012 election to replace what he'd get from Democratic party donors, the DNCC and the DSCC. He could count of some of their help in 2006 as he went through the primary, but now he's totally on his own. So in one move he secures funding for a reelection campaign and positions himself to sound strong on what's likely to be key issue of 2012.

He drives me up a wall, but I have to say, it's probably a pretty smart move for him. Worst case scenario he's probably secured himself a lucrative lobbying gig if he loses reelection.

Secretary Clinton Profiled

by Conor Friedersdorf

In the lengthy Vogue profile of Hillary Clinton, this paragraph vexed me:

The evening was a reminder of something about Clinton: She is tough—more hawkish than most liberals; she's comfortable with war talk in a boys'-club environment. "I think Hillary now prides herself on the fact that she's part of the gravitas team," says Chuck Todd, the NBC News chief White House correspondent. "Her, Joe Biden,

Bob Gates…the over-60 crowd."

Secretary Clinton is undoubtedly tough — a survivor who perseveres in politics despite setbacks — but can't we retire this lazy conflation of toughness and hawkishness among civilian policymakers? It isn't as though she'll be doing any fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere, and that she is comfortable with war talk doesn't make her any tougher than Cyrano de Bergerac was a confident pickup artist.

The career politician faces her own tests. Does she put the good of the country before her ambition? Does she persevere in righteous causes that seem lost? Does she keep her integrity and humility? Does she excel despite her grueling workload? Passing those tests and others like them ought to be what earns a Secretary of State the descriptor "tough."

Also noteworthy:

When she first appeared onstage the audience leaped to their feet, and the applause was deafening. "They weren't cheering Bob Gates," said a fellow in uniform sitting next to me. And despite the gravity of the occasion, a young woman bellowed at the top of her lungs, "I love you, Hilllllary!!!!," as if she were at a Lady Gaga concert. Seeming to acknowledge her superstar status, Clinton made a crack at the very end of the proceedings, saying that Gates had served most of his 43 years in public service "in secret" (referring to his CIA days). "And I have no secrets." The crowd roared with laughter.

What a cunning woman. The crowd laughed, but they missed the joke. Upon reflection, does anyone doubt that Secretary Clinton has enough secrets to fill Madison Square Garden? What an expertly inserted, audacious lie!

Perhaps you've picked up on my distrust of Secretary Clinton. In her current job, I haven't any criticism, the profile makes her seem likable enough, and the story of how she became Secretary of State is fascinating. But it is difficult to skip over lines like this from a Clinton staffer: "They started talking about it substantively, looking around the globe, and they were basically in the same place. The things they disagreed about in the campaign? We didn't believe he was actually going to have coffee with Ahmadinejad. It was something he shouldn't have said in the campaign, and we pounced on it. The tiny differences in their foreign-policy ideas during the primaries evaporated during the general election." Ha ha, that was just one of the strategies all politicians use during campaigns, where they shape America's public debate about urgent matters of foreign policy by… what's the word? Ah, yes, blatantly lying about it.

This also seems like a bad idea:

In Cape Town, she threw a party for the press and drank with the best of us, talking for more than two hours, into the night, with surprising off-the-record candor about everything from her husband to her disdain for certain world leaders.

Undiplomatic!

But does Hillary Clinton now put the good of the country before her ambition? Does she persevere in righteous causes that seem lost? Does she keep her integrity and humility? Does she excel despite her grueling workload? In her current role, I've got to concede that she scores pretty well on that test. Tough lady.