Month: December 2009

The indefatigable Veronique de Rugy notes the compounding problem of paying interest on the debt:

Based on Congressional Budget Office data, it represents the interest the government paid on the federal debt as a percentage of GDP between 1962 and today and the projected debt service payments up until 2082. The projections are illustrated under the current CBO baseline and under the CBO alternative, more realistic, scenario. For comparison, the graph also shows CBO’s projections for the cost of Medicare and Social Security as a percentage of GDP. Notice that under either of CBO’s scenarios, the net interest payments, or the costs of the debt, rival the cost of two of our nation’s most expensive

social programs.

The CBO baseline assumes that the projected 2009 spending level will stay the same as a share of GDP indefinitely, minus stimulus and related spending—it represents “CBO’s best judgment of how economic and other factors would affect federal revenues and spending if current laws and policies did not change,” CBO explains. The more likely “alternative” scenario factors in policy changes “that are widely expected to occur and that policy makers have regularly made in the past.”

The CBO alternative assumes that excise taxes and estate taxes remain constant as a share of GDP over the long term (instead of changing as scheduled under current law). It also assumes that tax provisions in the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003—the so-called “Bush tax cuts”—would be extended, and that the Alternative Minimum Tax would be indexed to inflation.

The Dish primarily focused on Palin fallout.  Andrew catalogued an odd lie based on her "birther" interview, NRO neglected to call out her comments, Barney Frank was confounded by her words at the Gridiron dinner, Slate held a contest mimicking her writing style, Ilya Somin tried to compare her to Eisenhower, Palin supporter John Mark Reynolds slammed Harper Collins for its condescending treatment of the truth, a commenter analyzed her supporters' worship, a Dish reader chimed in, and Andrew reiterated the real reason he goes after Palin. He also linked to a sound dissent.

In other coverage, Matt Bai examined the blurred line between politicians and talking heads, Johann Hari put a spotlight on the dark side of Dubai, Nicholas Ciarelli showed how Wikipedia isn't that open after all, Matt Sigl summed up a decade of marriage equality, Gwendolyn Bounds profiled urbanites escaping to the countryside, and Julian Sanchez contemplated the self.  We also rounded up some troubling rhetoric here, here, and here. Complete coverage of the Tiger Woods scandal here and some great footage of breakdancing Iranians here.

In his column this week, Andrew discussed the increased isolationism of the US after a decade of decline.

— C.B.

You may recall the somewhat bizarre response of the Pentagon to the news in June 2006 that three prisoners at Gitmo had somehow managed to hang themselves simultaneously in one of the most watched, patrolled and monitored prison sites in the world. The facts were bizarre: prisoners somehow had been hanging for two hours with rigor mortis when they were discovered; and their bodies were found to have a rag stuffed deep down their throats. But the strangeness and pathos of this event was only matched by the virulent anger of the Pentagon which immediately accused these defenseless and dead prisoners of "asymmetrical warfare" against the US.

Seton Hall University School of Law has now completed an exhaustive study of the entire affair. Much more disturbing than the actual deaths was the response of the authorities. Something is very awry here:

The original military press releases did not report that the detainees had been dead for more than two hours when they were discovered, nor that rigor mortis had set in by the time of discovery.

There is no explanation of how three bodies could have hung in cells for at least two hours while the cells were under constant supervision, both by video camera and by guards continually walking the corridors guarding only 28 detainees.

There is no explanation of how each of the detainees, much less all three, could have done the following: braided a noose by tearing up his sheets and/or clothing, made a mannequin of himself so it would appear to the guards he was asleep in his cell, hung sheets to block vision into the cell—a violation of Standard Operating Procedures, tied his feet together, tied his hands together, hung the noose from the metal mesh of ii the cell wall and/or ceiling, climbed up on to the sink, put the noose around his neck and released his weight to result in death by strangulation, hanged until dead and hung for at least two hours completely unnoticed by guards.

There is no indication that the medics observed anything unusual on the cell block at the time that the detainees were hanging dead in their cells.

The initial military press releases did not report that, when the detainees‘ bodies arrived at the clinic, it was determined that each had a rag obstructing his throat.

There is no explanation of how the supposed acts of ―asymmetrical warfare‖ could have been coordinated by the three detainees, who had been on the same cell block fewer than 72 hours with occupied and unoccupied cells between them and under constant supervision.

There is no explanation of why the Alpha Block guards were advised that they were suspected of making false statements or failing to obey direct orders. 

There is no explanation of why the guards were ordered not to provide sworn statements about what happened that night.

There is no explanation of why the government seemed to be unable to determine which guards were on duty that night in Alpha Block.

There is no explanation of why the guards who brought the bodies to the medics did not tell the medics what had happened to cause the deaths and why the medics never asked how the deaths had occurred.

There is no explanation of why no one was disciplined for acts or failures to act that night.

There is no explanation of why the guards on duty in the cell block were not systematically interviewed about the events of the night; why the medics who visited the cell block before the hangings were not interviewed; or why the tower guards, who had the responsibility and ability to observe all activity in the camp, were not interviewed.

This is interesting:

As reported in a March 29, 2008 story from the AllAfrica.com news service, in March 2008 Rick Warren attended a conference of Ugandan Anglican Bishops who were protesting the Church of England’s tolerance for homosexuality. AllAfrica, reporting on his appearance, summarized Warren’s quotes as homosexuality is not a natural way of life and thus not a human right, and directly quoted Warren as stating, “We shall not tolerate this aspect at all.”

The key involvement of Martin Ssempa in the bill, a close ally of Warren’s (who has now distanced himself), is already known. I didn’t realize that another key mover of the bill is Rick Warren’s own mentor and dissertation adviser:

To little notice, a charismatic network overseen by Warren’s doctoral dissertation advisor, C. Peter Wagner, has played a major role in politically organizing and inspiring the Ugandan legislators who have spearheaded the anti-gay bill. Both Wagner and Warren have designed elaborate infrastructures for blurring the lines between church and state. Wagner describes his movement as the “New Apostolic Reformation” and openly espouses his goals of reorganizing and mobilizing the church to take Christian “dominion” over government and society. Warren’s movement is described as a “second reformation” in the form of his P.E.A.C.E. plan, but his goals of rapid “expansion of the kingdom” in Uganda and elsewhere closely parallel those of Wagner’s.

… another loser:

The Iditarod plans to test mushers for drugs and alcohol in March, a change many mushers have no problem with — but one that three-time champion Lance Mackey scoffs at.

"I think it's a little bit ridiculous," Mackey said Wednesday night from his home near Fairbanks after a training run. "It is a dog race, not a human race. It (using a drug) doesn't affect the outcome of the race."

Mackey, a throat cancer survivor who has a medical marijuana card, admits to using marijuana on the trail and thinks his success has made some of his competitors jealous.

The LA Times' Borzou Daragahi reports. An Enduring America correspondent has more:

The chants are ‘Down with the Demagogues’, ‘Mahmoud the traitor, You have destroyed us and the soil of this country, You have killed the country’s youth, God is Great, God is Great…’

There are clashes between students and guards standing outside of the university at Vali-Asr. Some photographers and cameraman are taking pictures and filming in order to identify the students. According to the news, there are buses parked at the Somaie Park Street to transfer the arrested students.

A reader argues that the visibility of a child with special needs trumps any worries that he is being subjected to too much too young:

I share concerns with your reader related to Palin's use of Trig as a prop. But:

1.  Perhaps this is powerful for families of special needs children to see.  Perhaps the more Palin uses Trig as a visual prop or references him in talks the easier it becomes for these families.  Perhaps it makes them feel more accepted (not sure if these families feel un-accepted – just reflecting). 

2. While I don't know, I suspect that many women/families have struggled with the choice to give birth to a special needs child.  I also suspect that while many continue with the pregnancy there are many who have decided to have an abortion. 

Perhaps these decisions related to the difficulties this child would pose in one's family, in one's general routines of life or otherwise.  If this were so, then I wonder if seeing a special needs child so openly, proudly and even normally apart of someone's life is meaningful for these folks (those who had the child or are going through this decision now). 

These are just the thoughts that come to mind as I see more and more pictures of Palin with Trig on stage.  Could it be that despite her motives, in this one instance, she is actually advancing a positive end by using Trig as a prop? 

To me it was a bigger deal when she appeared to use Trig as a prop during the campaign…

Josh Shahryar rallies:

Already the government has banned as many reformist news sites as it possibly can, jailed reformist journalists and bloggers and restricted internet access across the country. As if that were not enough, it also banned all foreign media journalists in Iran from leaving their residences and revoked their permits from December 7 to 9. But this is all they can do to stop the flow of news. […] There is literally an army of these people who in a few hours will be doing only one thing — spreading news about the protests on Twitter, Facebook, Blogger, LiveJournal, YouTube, MySpace, Photobucket and every available bit of space on the internet they can get their keyboard and mouse on.

Enduring America is already doing a fantastic job of aggregating. Follow their coverage here. (They found the clip above.)

Masoud at the Newest Deal sets the scene for the Green movement today:

The question remains, will the regime's response to the protests be similar to what was witnessed on Qods Day, where massive turnout caught the regime off-guard, or will it instead be in the vein of 13 Aban, where gatherings were systematically and ruthlessly broken up by Basij and Revolutionary Guard agents? If events leading up to today's demonstrations are any indicator, the regime is undoubtedly preparing for a clash with protesters: student leaders and activists have been arrested en masse, internet access has been all but disconnected as of yesterday, and most recently the mothers of 21 victims of killed by the regime in post-election violence have been arrested for congregating in Tehran's Leleh Park. (The mother of Neda-Agha Soltan, who recently and explicitly blamed the regime for her daughter's death, is rumored to be among those arrested).

Tehran Bureau provides some historical background on the 7th of December – "Iran's Student Day":

After the CIA/MI6 coup of August 18, 1953, when the popular government of Dr. Mohammad Mosaddegh was overthrown and Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was put back on the throne, campuses became even more political. In the immediate aftermath of the coup, an extremely repressive and oppressive environment prevailed in Iran. The universities remained the most important places where protests against the anti-nationalist and foreign-sponsored coup were taking place.

On November 15, 1952, the coup government announced that Richard M. Nixon, then Vice President to U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, would pay a visit to Iran on December 9, 1953, presumably to celebrate with the Shah the demise of the Mosaddegh government and restoration of the monarchy. Nixon's visit was also supposed to demonstrate the Shah's full support for the United States. At that time however, anti-American feelings were running very high in Iran. Despite the extreme repression, the Shah had not been able to completely crush the opposition. The news of Nixon's trip angered the frustrated population, especially the opposition. […]

On the morning of December 7, 1953, the guards entered [the University of Tehran], the heart of the protests, to prevent any repeat demonstrations.

Though there had not been any demonstrations yet that day, the excuse given was that some students had mocked the police, and the police wanted to arrest them. Two soldiers and an officer went to a class to make the arrests. But the professor, Shams Malak Ara, asked them to leave. As they arrested two students, one student jumped on a desk and began shouting for help. Shams Malak Ara notified the Dean of the FOE.

The soldiers and the officer then went to the office of Dean of the FOE, Mohandes Khalili [who was later active in the National Front]. He also protested the intrusion, and his deputy, Dr. Rahim Abedi, was ordered to ring the bells to notify the students. Students gathered in the hall on the first floor of the school. The guards who had been on alert invaded the FOE building. According to Dr. Abedi, 68 bullets were fired. Three young students — Mostafa Bozorgnia, Ahmad Ghandchi, Mehdi Shariatrazavi — were killed.

Much more here.