Yes, the signs are almost text-book. Barring popular Sunni leaders from the March election; growing levels of violence; demonstrations that Sunni terrorists can destroy core ministries if they want to; no resolution to Kirkuk; even as the US prepares to withdraw. This, remember, is the acid test for the surge, according to Petraeus' own criteria. Has it managed to forge a new political settlement between the sects? Is that settlement durable? Now that we have armed and trained all sides, will an even more bitter civil war break out? If it does, we should not delay departing. We have done all we can for the ungrateful volcano, without being dragged back into decades of occupation.
Lynch reacts to the Iraqi government banning various Sunni politicians from participating in the next election:
The real significance of the electoral ban is not that it is likely to retrigger a sectarian war or lead to apocalyptic outcomes. It's more a manifestation of ongoing, lingering problems that continue to erode confidence in the emerging Iraqi state and erode the legitimacy of the evolving political system. It certainly doesn't mean that the U.S. should rethink its commitment to drawing down its military forces there, as some will likely suggest.
Indeed, the American commitment to withdraw did help to focus Iraqi minds, and some progress has been made on key issues — though clearly not enough. These Iraqi problems have persisted and evolved despite the ongoing presence of large numbers of U.S. troops, and keeping them there longer wouldn't do any more to solve them. It would also infuriate Iraqi public opinion, and violate the SOFA agreement. The U.S. should remain politically engaged and supportive but military force levels really aren't the issue.
(Photo: An Iraqi man gestures as he explains his injuries while being brought into the emergency room of a hospital in the northeastern town of Baquba, 60 kms from Baghdad on January 11, 2010. Five people were injured in total when a road side bomb detonated south of Baquba as they passed by. AFP.)
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