Events, My Dear Boy, Events, Ctd

Larison counters Douthat:

Obviously much depends on whether or not unemployment remains as high as it is, but not only did Reagan recover from the setbacks in the ‘82 midterms amid similarly high unemployment, but he went on to win one of the most lopsided presidential elections in American history two years later. Regardless of economic conditions, I would be very wary of assuming that the public will act in a certain way over two years from now. Much will depend on the quality of the candidate the GOP nominates, and just as much will depend on the perceived economic improvement between now and then that the incumbent will claim as his own.