Cameron Will Be PM Tomorrow?

BIGBENDanKitwood:Getty

The Evening Standard says Brown has resigned as PM, after the collapse of Lib-Lab talks. Politics Home relays that "the prime minister's spokesman denies Gordon Brown has resigned." James Forsyth reports:

The Lib Dems are holding a meeting of both their MPs and the Federal Executive at 7.30pm. It is now widely expected that this meeting will approve a coalition deal with the Conservatives. Those who have taken the temperature of the Lib Dem Federal Executive say that approval is in the bag.

Then this:

George Pascoe-Watson, the respected former political editor of the Sun, reports that the Lib Dems have six cabinet posts and Nick Clegg will become deputy prime minister. If so, the outsiders have won far more ground than anyone imagined possible and the landscape of British politics has changed – perhaps forever.

The FT is live-blogging. If this pans out, it's a huge achievement for the Tory negotiators. To construct a fiscally responsible Tory-Lib coalition government under this kind of pressure cannot have been easy.  And AV would not make one-party government impossible in the future but would make the system fairer. It also gives the Liberals a chance to prove their governing mettle.

So in one day, the prospect of a permanent left-of-center future for Britain has shifted to the possibility of a Whiggish Toryism emerging as a vital, stabilizing force for the coming weeks, months and maybe years. Amazing. I'm still trying to absorb it all.

The Purity Of Her Careerism

David Brooks' column today really helped crystallize for me my qualms about Elena Kagan. Her life, so far as one can tell, is her career, and her career has been built by avoiding any tough or difficult political or moral positions, eschewing any rigorous intellectual debate in which she takes a clear stand one way or the other, pleasing every single authority figure she has encountered, and reveling in the approval of the First Class Car Acela 11kagan3_inline-popup Corridor elite. The NYT profile – which is superb apart from its editorial decision to excise any account of any non-trivial private life (she smokes cigars!) since high school – is chilling in its assessment of a human soul in steady, determined pursuit of approval and power.

Name one risk she has taken with her career. I can't.

And when you notice that she intended to be a Supreme Court Justice from her childhood, and when you see how the hearings process shifted after Bork toward favoring the blander, less substantive, less controversial liberal avatars who now sit on the court, her strategy makes total sense. But where has she experienced the brunt of the law on ordinary people, as the president has described one of his criteria for the court? I guess if you regard Larry Tribe and Charles Ogletree as victims of the world, you could make a case for her empathy. But apart from that? Not much that I can see.

Where is the struggle in her life story that could possibly equate with Sotomayor's? The NYT is very keen to let us know that the Upper West Side where she grew up was not as tony as it is today. Er, that's about it. Michael Waldman hilariously cites her real world experience as part of the Clinton domestic policy apparatus. Not a single anecdote in her life-story would be out of place in a Rhodes Scholar application – and I mean that as damning. Every one is just quirky enough – but equally framed to show she represents no conceivable threat to any conceivable liberal interest or authority.

Kagan strikes me as the Democratic elite's elitist: free of any conviction that is not caged in a web of Clintonian caution, punctiliously diligent in every aspect of her career, motivated by a desire never to offend those with power, and rewarded in turn by the protection and praise of these elites. Here is Walter Dellinger's almost comically balanced, well-polished, piece of bullshit:

“Her open-mindedness may disappoint some who want a sure liberal vote on almost every issue. Her pragmatism may disappoint those who believe that mechanical logic can decide all cases. And her progressive personal values will not endear her to the hard right. But that is exactly the combination the president was seeking.”

Notice how every single virtue – open-mindedness, pragmatism, "progressive personal values" whatever that means) – is framed as naturally meeting resistance from those outside the sequestered liberal judicial elite. And this opposition merely confirms – how could it not? – the broad beneficence of one of their own, leavened with the necessary sprinkling of inoffensive anecdotage. Even her youthful smoking – what a rebel! – is balanced by her attempt to regulate tobacco in her later years, and, in case anyone might think of her as a puritan, the cigar anecdote is thrown in for good measure.

It's all so comfy, isn't it? Those poker parties. Those committee meetings. No wonder Jeffrey Rosen and Jeffrey Toobin validate her. But at least they have offered an opinion or two from time to time on issues every thinking person would discuss. She hasn't. And remember that we are told that her early family life was a cauldron of debate and discussion. In a way, talking about the closet of sexual orientation is beside the point. Her entire life seems to have been a closet – in the pursuit of a career.

David Brooks calls this generational elite pattern – which is far broader and wider than Kagan's lone example – "disturbing." I find it depressing. And none of us has any clue whatsoever what kind of justice she would be – and that's fine with those in the elites who need only their private knowledge and web of social networks to give one of their own so much power over so many, without ruffling her composure one little bit.

Labour Rebels Against Brown

Listen to John Reid, a serious Labour official, talk sense about Brown's gamble:

More Labour discontent here. Money quote:

“I think this is a bad decision, the wrong thing for the country and the Labour party,” said Mr Reid, a long-time opponent of Mr Brown. “If this is the new politics then I don’t think people are going to be very attracted to it.”

“It would be mutually assured destruction,” he said, adding: “If we appear to be snubbing the electorate … I think we will rue the day.”

Mr Reid said David Blunkett, his fellow former home secretary and Labour MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, agreed and had authorised him to say so.

Their sentiments were shared by several colleagues. Some warned the Government could be held to ransom by Scottish and Welsh nationalists, whose handful of Commons seats would be crucial to a “rainbow coalition” against the Tories.

“Not A Play Thing For Lord Mandelson”

In the surreal twists and turns of British politics this past week, Gordon Brown’s attempt to seize an opportunity for a Labour-Liberal coalition was one of the most startling. It felt like something perfectly out of Lord Mandelson’s playbook – Machiavellian, ruthless, and based on an abiding hatred of all things Tory. But it seems to have backfired:

Some Lib Dem negotiators were unimpressed by the demeanour of the Labour negotiators, claiming they showed no real interest in a deal.

The attitude of Labour backbenchers has also undermined the pro-Labour forces inside the Lib Dems, as they face the reality that a coalition, needed to force through a deficit reduction programme, will be unstable for as long as two to three years.

Many Labour MPs, including those from northern heartlands and Scotland, seem to be furious that they were not consulted on the deal. One party member close to a leadership campaign said: “The party is not a plaything of Lord Mandelson.”

The Tory proposal – to offer the Lib-Dems a referendum on Alternative Voting – seems a genuine and real concession that is about as far as the party could go without splitting in half. So Cameron lives on as a potential prime minister. Here’s hoping he gets there sooner rather than later.

By the way, if you want an almost perfect flavor of the debate in Britain right now, watch the Youtube above. It’s a rare moment in which private passions burst out in public – and helps you understand why Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s legendary press enforcer, is regarded by so many as a noxious influence in political life in Britain.

Science And Morality, Ctd

Steinglass counters Harris:

How many Westerners can Sam Harris find who defend female genital excision? There basically aren’t any, and indeed the overwhelming majority of those who denounce female genital excision are secular Western leftists, precisely those whom Harris would presumably denounce as moral relativists. The defense of female genital excision is carried out by Muslim men and women who live in the countries where it is practiced. And here’s the key: Western governments have had no trouble whatsoever enacting or enforcing bans on FGM on their own territory, while Western anti-FGM activists have had only moderate and gradual success in fighting the practice through propaganda in the countries where it is practiced. And neither of those things would change one whit if we decided that we had some kind of science-based morality in addition to the Western rationalist secular moral tradition that has been getting along quite well over the past several hundred years.

I am a big believer in science. That’s why I think it shouldn’t attempt to generate knowledge in fields where it can’t generate knowledge.

Kagan Is For Marriage Equality?

That's what Maggie Gallagher is arguing:

Kagan waded into the DOMA case, amending a brief that offered “responsible procreation” as a reason for DOMA to instead explicitly reject procreation and child wellbeing as a reason for defining marriage as one man and one woman — undermining the law she claims to be defending. We’ve seen this tactic in state litigation before: Attorneys general pretend to defend the marriage law but sabotage the case by explicitly rejecting procreation as a reason for marriage. (See Jerry Brown in California.)

If you doubt my reading of Kagan’s record, see the Human Rights Campaign’s press release, which specifically cites her support for “marriage equality” in cases before the Supreme Court as a reason for voting for her. HRC and Maggie Gallagher agree: A vote for Elena Kagan is a vote for finding a constitutional right to gay marriage that will overturn marriage laws in every state.

Every state? And when you read HRC's statement, it says "issues related to marriage equality" not marriage equality itself. Althouse examines Kagan's record on the issue. I think she makes some fair points.

Surge Fail Update

328 Iraqis were killed in sectarian attacks last month – around the same number as in April 2009. Yesterday was particularly bloody with over a hundred Shiite deaths from Sunni or Qaeda terrorists. The world barely noticed, but this does not sound promising:

Today's attacks stood out from other spikes in bloodshed over the past year. They were marked by a large number of precise bombings and assassinations, in all corners of the country.

Allawi is warning of worse to come:

"This conflict will not remain within the borders of Iraq. It will spill over and it has the potential to reach the world at large, not just neighbouring countries. Now Iraq is at centre stage in the region. But it is boiling with problems, it is stagnant and it can go either way. I feel that we are not done and that the international community has failed this country."

Yglesias Award Nominee

"Let's compare Bush to Obama in a more serious way. Bush always used to say "We're fighting them over there, so we don't have to fight them over here." And we would all go "Oh, you moron." But that's basically the policy Obama is doing. Obama may call it something different, but doubling down in Afghanistan and sending more troops in there is fighting them over there, so we don't have to fight them here. But I'd like to say, "Memo to the administration: They're already here." So what is the point of us being in Afghanistan?" – Bill Maher, on the Times Square bomb.

“Fuel-Sweating Flora”

Matthew Wald spotlights some cool innovation on the biofuels front:

The company, Joule Unlimited of Cambridge, Mass., has developed several patented gene-altered organisms that absorb sunlight and carbon dioxide and combine these into hydrocarbons. The organisms – basically single-celled plants – live in a panel that vaguely resembles a solar photovoltaic one.