From the Beeb's live-blog:
The whole Labour strategy of a coalition with the Lib Dems depended on the latter taking some seats from the Tories, but that hasn't happened, says YouGov's Peter Kellner. For exmple, in Eastbourne the Lib Dems only needed a 1% swing to take control, but they didn't get it – and that will upset both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown.
Julian Glover thinks Gordon Brown should bow out:
There's a moment in every game when someone has to put a hand on your shoulder, whisper in your ear and tell you to walk away – you've lost. Labour isn't quite at that point yet this evening but it's looking close. Tonight looks like bringing a big turnout, a sizeable Tory lead, though maybe not the large clear majority many Tories think Cameron should have won, and a big Labour defeat.
Martin Kettle's take:
Gordon Brown's acceptance speech after his win in Kirkcaldy was interpreted by the BBC studio team as practically a valedictory on his prime ministership. Maybe. My reaction was that he is keeping his options open. Brown's insistence on playing his part and on securing a stable government sounded pretty much like the words of a man who is not going to give up any time soon. The messages from Labour are that the party is in the business of trying to form a coalition if they can. Will they succeed? I doubt it. But I think Brown thinks he lives to fight another day – though maybe only one more of them.
Daniel Berman notes:
[T]he Liberal Democrats just failed to take their number one conservative target, and on a massive 6.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. It does seem quite possible that the exit poll may be more accurate than thought.
James Forsyth sums it up:
Fascinating dividing line being drawn between Tories, who say the exit poll means "Cameron in, Brown out" and the Labour team trying to play the "progressive coalition" card. David Miliband says: "Voters have given us an injunction to talk to each other". (As opposed to an injunction to take a running jump.) Blunkett, too, making wooing noises. The Kingswood victory – one of the bellwether seats which indicates a Cam majority – does lead me to suspect the Tories will get to 326 in the end. But not for a few hours yet.
Intrade gives the conservatives around a sixty percent chance of a majority, for what it's worth.
From Bagehot's live-blog:
According to our map-masters, 32 constituencies had declared by this time in 2005. We're well behind that schedule, presumably because of the rumoured higher turnout. A returning officer from Sheffield claims its the highest in 30 years.
Still very few results. You can watch BBC's live-stream and live-blog here. Nick Robinson bemoans the process:
Voters locked out of polling stations, ballot papers running out, scuffles inside polling stations, sit-ins, the police called, some able to vote after 10pm while others were blocked from doing so.
What a tragedy that, after a campaign which engaged and energised many who were previously cynical about politics, tonight's story may be being over-shadowed by the extraordinary revelation that Britain cannot competently run the most basic part of the democratic process.
John Cassidy counters Niall Ferguson:
In my opinion, Britain’s long-term economic difficulties have been overstated, and its political firmament has been misinterpreted. With an economic recovery already under way, I expect the fiscal arithmetic to steadily improve, and the scare stories about Britain turning into Greece to be discredited. From a political perspective, today’s victor…will enter office with the priceless asset of diminished expectations. With a budget deficit of more than ten per cent of G.D.P., most Britons accept the need fiscal retrenchment, which, in any case, can be blamed on Gordon Brown’s financial mismanagement. By 2015, when the next scheduled election is due, most of the harsh measures will have been taken, the economic outlook is likely to be much brighter, and the incumbent party will be well-placed for reëlection. (If there is a hung parliament, things get a bit more complicated, with another election likely later this year or early next. But I would still expect the party that emerges as the victor of that contest to be reëlected in 2015.)
A Greek man is reflected in a broken mirror as he checks newspapers in the center of Athens on May 6, 2010. A fire-bomb attack on a bank in Greece killed at least three people on May 5, as police fought pitched battles with striking protesters furious at brutal budget cuts designed to avert national bankruptcy. Greek unions mobilized Thursday for new demonstrations against draconian austerity cuts as the government raced to push the unprecedented measures through parliament a day after deadly rioting. By Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images.
It has been revised:
Tories fall back slightly in exit poll. They're now on 305, down from 307. Labour on 255, unchanged. Lib Dems up from 59 to 61.
And one begins to despair just a little bit more:
"We know that the adolescent is spontaneously homosexual. Boys play with boys, girls play with girls," [Brazilian Archbishop Dadeus Gring] said. "If there is no proper guidance, this sticks. The question is how are we going to educate our children to use a sexuality that is human and suitable?"
Grings also said the acceptance of homosexuality in society could pave the way for the acceptance of pedophilia.
"When sexuality is trivialized, it's clear that this is going to affect all cases. Homosexuality is such a case. Before, the homosexual wasn't spoken of. He was discriminated against. When we begin to say they have rights, rights to demonstrate publicly, pretty soon, we'll find the rights of pedophiles,"
The Dish 