Month: July 2010

Daniel Indiviglio:

We'll probably have to wait until we get rid of all the Census and seasonality noise to fully understand the way the labor market is evolving. But the narrative essentially sounds something like: job growth wasn't quite as strong as we thought it was during the spring, and probably won't be as resilient as we hoped it would be during the summer. With private sector jobs continuing to grow, though at a crawl, at least we're on the right path. It's just going to be a slow recovery for employment.

Felix Salmon:

Unemployment dropped sharply, to 9.5%. But why?…If people are just giving up and removing themselves from the workforce, then a falling unemployment rate only serves to hide the bad news. What’s more, the only important statistical decline in the unemployment rate was among white women, who already have lower unemployment than just about anybody else. The rest of the country — including, crucially, men overall — was pretty much unchanged.

Leonhardt:

The overall picture isn’t so much of a double-dip recession as it is of a badly wounded economy recovering at a slow pace.

Calculated Risk digs into the details.

(Image via Ezra Klein)

The Economist has a video interview with photographer Bruno Stevens:

Robert Wright turns his attention to Afghanistan:

If you ask people — right, left or center — why we can’t withdraw from Afghanistan, they start talking about the catastrophe that would ensue: The Taliban would take over, provide bases for al Qaeda, and suddenly it’s 9/11 again. Now, the consequences of withdrawal would certainly be messy and in some ways bad — and this subject is way too complicated to deal with in my remaining few paragraphs. But enough holes have been poked in standard catastrophe scenarios (by, for example, Paul Pillar, former deputy chief of the C.I.A.’s counterterrorism center) without much reducing the grip these scenarios have on people’s minds that you have to wonder whether our fears are grounded in something other than pure reason. You have to wonder whether we’re…taking a genuinely pretty scary bunch of enemies and making them much scarier — attributing so much unity and relentlessness and cunning to them that it’s hard to imagine beating them without military victory.

Pew has a new report on the recession:

The work-related impact of this recession extends far beyond the 9.7% who are unemployed or the 16.6% who (according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) are either out of work or underemployed. The Pew Research survey finds that about a third (32%) of adults in the labor force have been unemployed for a period of time during the recession. And when asked about a broader range of work-related impacts, 55% of adults in the labor force say that during the recession they have suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or an involuntary spell in a part-time job.

William Galston is somber:

As recently as 2002, 61 percent thought their children’s standard of living would be better than their own; only 10 percent thought it would be worse. Today, the optimists’ share has declined to 45 percent, while pessimists now constitute fully 26 percent of the population. And doubt tends to reinforce caution. We don’t have enough evidence to conclude that the Great Recession will generate the kind of long-lasting risk aversion that characterized the Depression-era generation throughout their lives. But we do have reason to believe that for some time to come, what Keynes famously called “animal spirits” will remain subdued, which suggests that we’re in for a slow recovery and historically high levels of unemployment for much of this decade. If the Pew report is on target, the “new normal” will be more than a slogan.  

Richard Florida spends some time in the car:

Commuting costs America an estimated $90 billion dollars per year in terms of lost productivity and wasted energy, according to the annual Urban Mobility Report. Our own detailed calculations by Martin Prosperity Institute (MPI) research director Kevin Stolarick find that every minute shaved off America's commuting time is worth an estimated $19.5 billion dollars.  That translates into $97.7 billion for five minutes, $195 billion for 10 minutes, and $292 billion for every 15 minutes saved nationally.

Sargent's two cents:

We all agree that pickpocketing constitutes "theft." A pickpocket doesn't get to come along and argue: "No, what I did isn't theft, it's merely pickpocketing, and therefore it isn't illegal." Any newspaper that played along with a pickpocket's demand to stop using the word "theft" would be taking the pickpocket's side, not occupying any middle ground. There is no middle ground here.

Jim Henley travels them:

I don’t presently care to argue that there is never any “need” to go down any given low road. In some cases I may support some low roads for some purposes. Locking up murderers, for instance. In other cases – torture – I have a much easier time saying “Never go there.” But what we see over and over again is that we judge high-road approaches as failures unless they produce nigh-instant and complete favorable results, while we show nearly infinite patience for journeys down the low road.

Today on the Dish, Garrett Epps relayed Kagan's response to marriage equality, Adam Serwer picked up on her philosophy, and Bernstein wasn't so sure. Andrew asked if the Israeli-Palestinian relationship was apartheid and aimed both barrels at the NYT over torture. Greenwald piled on.

Sharron Angle finally talked to the media – about church-state separation – while a Tumblr transposed her and other Christianists' words with Christ. Palin-Johnston spat here. More Trig discussion here and here. More Palin here. Andrew returned fire to Breitbart and shared his thoughts Hitch's diagnosis

Frum grasped for an approach to a double-dip recession, Leonhardt stayed positive on the bad job numbers, and Rory Stewart remained gloomy over Afghanistan. Drum wanted to nudge Social Security into solvency, Free Exchange was afraid of soaking the rich, Allahpundit predicted Obama's cooperation with Republicans, and a reader dissented over Andrew's support of lifting the cap. Alan Simpson pointed out Reagan's multiple tax hikes.

Mark Liberman took down the "Obama is first female POTUS" meme and a reader helped. Dan Zak glimpsed at the end of gay history and Alyssa Rosenberg looked forward the new Jersey Shore. Readers added to the thread on in utero gay therapy and another defended porn. Malkin Awards here and here. More dog love here. Tumblr fun here and a dose of Simpsons here. MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.

— C.B.

(Photo: U.S. Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan listens to a question from members of the Senate Judiciary Committee on the third day of her confirmation hearings on Capitol Hill June 30, 2010 in Washington, DC. By Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images.)