Using more recent data, Bert Useem of Purdue University and Anne Piehl of Rutgers University estimate that a 10% increase in the number of people behind bars would reduce crime by only 0.5%. In the states that currently lock up the most people, imprisoning more would actually increase crime, they believe. Some inmates emerge from prison as more accomplished criminals. And raising the incarceration rate means locking up people who are, on average, less dangerous than the ones already behind bars. A recent study found that, over the past 13 years, the proportion of new prisoners in Florida who had committed violent crimes fell by 28%, whereas those inside for “other” crimes shot up by 189%. These “other” crimes were non-violent ones involving neither drugs nor theft, such as driving with a suspended licence.
Texas In Africa makes her case in more detail. Jason Stearns differs. Chris Blattman moderates:
My fear: oodles of energy get directed to the minerals issue, armed groups re-balance their portfolio, and not much changes in the way of rebel finance. “Conflict cows” doesn’t sell so well, and so Enough declares victory, seizes the next sexy issue … the US will continue it’s 50-year policy of supporting dodgy dictators in Kinshasa, all the while wondering why things never seem to get better; and the eastern Congolese go about their business of evading rapers and abductors.
Today on the Dish, Andrew lauded Obama's historic efforts, recommended a new book on neoconservatives, and kept defending himself against smears. The blogosphere reacted to new GDP numbers. Allahpundit assessed the unsettling Time cover on Afghanistan, Ackerman relayed some surprising polling on drones, and Greenwald chided war supporters over Wikileaks. A distressing dispatch from Afghanistan here.
In Palin coverage, she found an ally in the ADL (commentary here), David Vitter ran with death panels, and Ruth Graham reviewed her upcoming biography. Wasilla gossip here. Pareene checked in on Huckabee and his new show. Insane Malkin award here.
Rauch analyzed the libertarian leaning of Independents and Posner knocked the WaPo series. More discussion of energy innovation here and here. Readers sized up the immigration unrest. Mel Gibson gossip here and here. Creepy ad here and a charming pro-pot cartoon here. MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.
Massa Martana, Italy, 12 pm
Thursday on the Dish, Congress encouraged war against Iran, the GOP continued to flail on fiscal issues, Cameron took on Pakistan, a reader explained the real reason behind his support for Turkey, and the Israeli army knockeddown a Bedouin village. The oil spill didn't appear as bad as once thought.
Andrew sized up the midterm elections and tore into a WSJ op-ed on the fiscal crisis. Ambinder looked to November, Friedersdorf fingered the practical perils of partisanship, Josh Green backed Elizabeth Warren, Michael Singh cheered up Green Movement supporters, and Exum had some final thoughts on Wikileaks' latest.
Basil Marceaux campaign coverage here and here. Malkin award here. NOM watch here and here. "Death panels" had legs. Palin didn't appear to have them in New Hampshire. A Trig link here.
Remaining mosque talk here and here. Another big installment of the energy innovation debate here. More on the affirmative action debate here and here. Andrew Hacker tackled tenure, Nate Silver pwned Mark Penn, and Balko finished off his debate on gambling.
The Dish eulogized cartoonist John Callahan. Circumcision comic superhero here. More Who-mania here and here. Startling celebrity sex quote here. MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.
Wednesday on the Dish, Andrew followed up on his neoconservative pitch for Palestine, went toe-to-toe with Frum over Turkey, dropped his jaw at Bush's profligacy abroad, sounded off on energy reform, added to a discussion on government inertia, and defended his provocative record. A new paper appeared to prove that the administration prevented a depression. Oil spill update here.
More coverage of the crusade against mosques here, here, and here. Neocon spluttering over Turkey here and here. Yglesias awards here and Hewitt here. Ambinder wasn't convinced of Palin's impact in New Hampshire and Democrats prayed for her nomination (a related post here). Chuck Todd blasted Journo-list and Reihan clarified his take. O'Reilly appeared more pro-gay than Obama. Wyclef Jean contemplated a presidential run. California cannabis update here.
Readers gushed over Doctor Who, others carried on the conversation over affirmative action, and another gave advice to the unemployed. Email of the day here and runner-up here.
Andrew outed the Vatican and took the gay-pope bait. Christianism alert here and Christian hathos here. Colbert bait here, Stewart goatee here, and beardicide here. Foodie porn here and a nod to Futurama here. MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here. A great follow up to the window contest here.
By Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
Tuesday on the Dish, Cameron had stern words for Israel, Bagehot found him tone deaf, Larison joined the debate over the country's usefulness for the US, and Roger Cohen reminded us about the American who was killed on the flotilla. Optimistic Iran update here. And things looked up for Obama.
In Palin coverage, Mudflats searched for her accomplishments for Alaska since leaving office, Nyhan compared her favorables to Clinton's, and a reader noted her self-promotion over Track's service. Her endorsement of a New Hampshire Grizzly backfired and she hit the campaign trail with Christ. Trig clarification here.
In assorted commentary, Leonhardt engaged Douthat over energy innovation, Bernstein eulogized cap and trade, Ryan Avent and Greg Mankiw were skeptical about the stimulus, and Chait loved to hate on the Weekly Standard. Readers continued to chat about affirmative action, another shared her recession view, and another dissented over characterizing soldiers sent to war.
Joe the Plumber sighting here, browser porn here, and another dose of slow lighting here. A special MHB here, a timeless VFYW here, and a surreal FOTD here. This week's window contest was another good one.
ABC finally released the full transcripts of her 2008 interviews. More Palin coverage here and here. The backlash against Lindsey Graham got scary. "Torture" watch here and here.
Creepy ad here. Slow lightning here, unoriginal lyrics here, ugly animals here, guy stuff here, and the definitive case against monogamy here. MHB here, VFYW here, and FOTD here.
Many Muslims in Pakistan say there is a struggle between groups that want to modernize their country and Islamic fundamentalists (44 percent), and of those who see a struggle, most identify with the modernizers (61 percent). At the same time though, a solid majority of Pakistanis polled said they would favor making gender segregation in the workplace a law in the country (85 percent), as well as punishments like whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery (82 percent), and stoning people who commit adultery (82 percent).
So what explains this obvious paradox between people who side with modernization but simultaneously support punishments like stoning and flogging? According to Peter Mandaville, professor of Government and Islamic Studies at George Mason University and author of Global Political Islam, this reflects "a mistaken tendency to conflate modernization with the adoption of liberal social and religious values. When many Pakistanis think of "modernizing" their country, they think primarily in terms of economic development and technology — both of which can comfortably coexist alongside conservative religious attitudes."
This is a strange war we’re fighting against Islamist terrorism. We must fight the terrorists with alacrity, but at the same time we must understand that what the terrorists seek is a clash of civilizations. We must do everything possible to avoid giving them propaganda victories in their attempt to create a cosmic war between Judeo-Christian civilization and Muslim civilization. The fight is not between the West and Islam; it is between modernists of all monotheist faiths, on the one hand, and the advocates of a specific strain of medievalist Islam, on the other. If we as a society punish Muslims of good faith, Muslims of good faith will join the other side. It’s not that hard to understand. I’m disappointed that the ADL doesn’t understand this.
But it’s a sign of just how deep the religious war now runs. Adam Serwer:
Let’s be clear. This is not about the proposed Islamic Center. There is already a masjid in the neighborhood, and it’s been there for decades. This is about giving political cover to right-wing politiciansusing anti-Muslim bigotry as a political weapon and a fundraising tool. By doing this the ADL is increasingly eroding its already weakened credibility as a non-partisan organization.
You cannot “categorically reject appeals to bigotry” and then back precisely the outcome those bigots back. You are in essence saying you agree with the bigots but just wish they would be a little nicer about it. You are in essence saying that the right to worship and assemble peaceably should be curbed when exercising those rights might run counter to “strong passions” and “keen sensitivities”. You are in essence saying that grievance trumps first-amendment protections. This is a position unworthy of an organisation that claims to defend civil rights.
The overarching theme of the study is that the intelligence system is too large. But in emphasizing sheer size, the study reflects a lack of perspective. Although the national security state has about 100,000 employees and annual expenditures of $75 billion, IBM has four times as many employees and yearly costs approaching the same amount. Is IBM too large? Is $75 billion, which is roughly one-half of one percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, too much to spend on the full range of intelligence activities in which the world’s most powerful and globally committed nation—a nation at war and struggling against terrorism on many fronts, including the home front—is compelled to engage?
If you look closely, you’ll find that Manzi has gone and made the case for a carbon price in as compelling a fashion as you’re likely to find. Manzi thinks about automobiles and gas taxes and pictures a certain kind of innovation — new cars with new engines that don’t run on gas. And when he looks at Europe he doesn’t see it. But does that mean that there has been no innovation in response to the higher gas tax rates?
Clearly that’s not the case. In general, Europeans do drive different automobiles, which tend to be smaller and more efficient.
Anti-abortion activists hold an event to 'beat and hang' Senator Lindsey Grahams, R-SC, in effigy for committing 'ethical and political treachery against the babies of North Carolina, and the laws of God' on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, July, 29, 2010. By Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images.
The Dish 