Iran And 2012

by Patrick Appel

I'd like to join Fallows and disassociate myself from Elliott Abrams claim that Obama may eventually bomb Iran in order to win reelection. Boiling down questions of this magnitude to crass political calculation is no way to have a debate. But since Abrams raised the point, over on the Israel-Iran debate page Karim Sadjadpour rebuts Abrams, writing that any honest analysis from the White House "would conclude that a military attack on Iran, and the myriad long-term repercussions of such an attack (which I will address later), could well sabotage Obama's chance at re-election." Greg Scoblete finds another weak link in Abrams's argument

Wars have frequently been waged for balance-of-power concerns, but in this case [if Iran acquired a nuclear bomb], how significant would the balance of power shift out of America's favor? Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is not the top country on the subcontinent – it can barely curtail its own home grown insurgency and it was threatened/cajoled by the U.S. to allow us to bomb portions of the country almost at will. North Korea has nuclear weapons and you'd be laughed out of a room if you suggested they had anything resembling "hegemony" in Asia.

Iran with a crude nuclear weapon would still be poor, weak and surrounded by unfriendly states.

License to Steal

by Conor Friedersdorf

Radley Balko writes:

Civil asset forfeiture is an unjust, unfair practice under any circumstance. The idea that the government can take someone's property on the legal fiction that property itself can be guilty of a crime is an invitation to corruption, and provides a way for the government to get its hands on private goods under a lower burden of proof than it needs to actually convict someone (criminal forfeiture, different from civil forfeiture, requires an actual conviction). What's happening in Indiana, where the entire legal system is essentially ignoring the spirit if not the outright letter of state law, only confirms that once you give government license to steal, it's very difficult to wrest it back.

He offers details here.

44 Months

by Patrick Appel

A reader writes:

I'm part of the 10%. The 10% that Kleiman would argue have been part of the "problem use" of cannabis, using it heavily and frequently.

Kleiman argues that the average median duration of heavy use is "44 months," and that this should be cause for alarm. There were 44 months of my life where I used cannabis almost daily, often heavily – it's called college. If you do the math, that 44 months equals 3 and 3/4th years, exactly the span of college for most individuals, providing you do not take summer courses at the end of your fourth year.

Despite the claim that this was a large amount of time to "take out" of my "young lifetime," I have no regrets, especially when compared to how that time was spent for most of my college colleagues across the country – binge drinking. Cannabis use, like binge drinking, is tolerated in college not because of a lack of legal consequences, but because of its social acceptability. I find the wording that Kleiman uses very interesting here – these experiences should be considered as "taken out" of my life apparently, despite the fact that I still remember what I learned during those times, and despite the fact that those 44 months exploded by social contacts and experiences. Even when I was often "high" for the experiences.

Is my factual recall any worse because of my cannabis use? Sometimes, but often it has been better, as I pause to reflect on the meaning and context of what I am reading. Much of the time, if I were not stoned, I would be looking on Facebook for the latest social news. When stoned, I find something of interest that I wouldn't normally, and delve deeper into online sources or books that I've been meaning to read. Let me be clear: I, like many others, read and learn with interest and excitement when I am high.

What happened when I stopped being in a college environment where free pot is available everywhere? I stopped using it heavily. That's what happens with even most college binge drinkers when they leave, even though alcohol is legal and easily obtained after college. Sure, there are cannabis users that think cannabis is more fun than geometry, but I don't see why they must be mutually exclusive. There are also people like myself, who found calculus boring and difficult until I was stoned, and could focus on understanding the concepts instead of the exact math, allowing me to build on that new understanding.

I don't know how many new people will use cannabis after legalization who wouldn't have before. I don't know how many people would see legalization as a realization of what people like me already know: being high is actually rather boring, and not for everyone. I don't know how many people will simply replace a night of alcohol use with a night of cannabis use.

But neither does Kleiman. Advertising executives exist in every country with decriminalization, and yet substantially changed drug policies in Spain, Portugal and Holland point out that cannabis use falls, not rises, with a sensible drug policy.

Elevating A Bottom Dweller

by Chris Bodenner

Why is CNN legitimizing Bryan "Ban All Mosques" Fischer by giving him five minutes on national television? (For a record of his vile rhetoric, go here.) My feeling is that attention-seeking figures like Fischer and Fred Phelps should be ignored by mainstream outlets. Even the Dish has stopped nominating Fischer for Malkin Awards; it's too easy.