Month: August 2010

Perry v. Schwarzenegger: How Will The GOP Respond?

Ed Kilgore flags the above ad:

The very day after Judge Walker's decision, Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, locked in a nasty cage-match runoff fight with Karen Handel, launched a new ad blasting his rival for alleged friendliness to gays and lesbians. Those unaccustomed to the current tone of Republican politics in the South may be shocked at the unabashed homophobia in the ad, which brings back memories of the late Jesse Helms. In fact, it's a theme Deal has been hitting for some time, and I'm sure the ad was in the can before word came out of San Francisco about the judge's ruling. But if he indeed makes this his signature attack line in the final push towards next Tuesday's runoff, it's probably because Perry v. Schwarzenegger has again made the specter of "activist judges" supporting the "homosexual agenda" a lively concern among conservative Republicans..

Whatever happens in Georgia–where Sarah Palin is riding into town the day before the runoff to campaign with Handel–a renewed focus on fighting marriage equality will have a long-term effect on the nature and appeal of the GOP.

When A Nation Goes To War

Chait argues that Joe Klein has over-learned the lessons of the Iraq war:

Klein's argument that "we should never go to war unless we have been attacked or are under direct, immediate threat of attack" is a pretty extreme position. It would rule out not just the intervention in Bosnia and Kosovo, but also the Gulf War, the Korean War, and going to war against Germany in World War II, not to mention obviously Vietnam and World War I. Probably the only wars such a standard would permit would be fighting Japan in World War II and, arguably, the War of 1812.

Now, there are some people who believe that. But does Klein really believe it?

I suspect that what Joe means is no more pre-emptive wars. As in: the war against Iran I expect The New Republic to endorse pretty soon. But even taking Jon's formulation, I have to say that the Iraq experience and the collapse of American finances make Joe's words much more plausible than I would have dreamed of a decade ago. To see just how ruinous war is, how totally disproportionate the costs and the benefits (if any for American power) became, to watch the stalemate in Afghanistan that is still causing appalling civilian casualties … well count me as a chastened non-pacifist. Who could not be after the last decade of folly?

As to the wars Jon cites: the war against Germany was made inevitable after Pearl Harbor because of the Axis, but America refused to intervene before then, which is the main point. Vietnam was a disaster, as was World War I, whose consequences arguably made World War II possible. The Gulf War? It took half a million troops to advance a few miles, and didn't remove Saddam. Bosnia? Chait forgets how conditional and measured the NATO response was, although I became convinced eventually of the logic of war because of the precedent of genocide in Europe, and the relatively light cost of intervention. 

I am a victim, I guess, of the Iraq War syndrome. But that isn't some kind of psychological condition. It's the consequence of being an interventionist who has been mugged by reality.

How Legal Marijuana Hurts The Gangs

Marijuana

Scott Morgan spells it out:

We're going to legalize pot, not thuggery. The murderers in Mexico don't possess a single skill that would give them an advantage in a regulated market. Their only asset is a willingness to break the law, and in the unlikely event that they elected to run a legal business instead, they wouldn't be criminals anymore. We will control the regulatory process and there's nothing about marijuana that invites fraud or extortion to any greater extent than every other taxable commodity on the market.

If you're still not getting this, let me put it another way: Mexican drug cartels don't sell marijuana because they're passionate about cannabis culture or botany, or because they love stacking bricks of mid-grade in the back of a pick-up truck. Absolutely the only reason they're in the marijuana business is because we gave them a monopoly on it. When we take that away from them, they will make less money and their organizations will get smaller.

After November, Ctd

Bernstein uses the Kagan confirmation to speculate about future Senate gridlock:

I don't really expect a full-blown train wreck over the budget, or over any must-pass legislation next year, no matter how well the GOP does in November.  But if there's a Supreme Court opening, and if the Democrats hold fewer than, say, 55 seats in the Senate, I think the odds of a real train wreck, a total stalemate, have to be well over 50/50.  And, again, if the Democrats fall below 55 Senators, I'll be surprised if the Senate manages to confirm very many Appeals Court nominees.   

Lebanon’s Itchy Trigger Finger, Ctd

Daniel Levy responds to the incident:

Tuesday's incident once again demonstrates that the alternative to a negotiated regional settlement is not the status quo but rather occasional convulsions of violence which sometimes do and sometimes do not ignite a wave of prolonged clashes. Lebanon and Israel have a set of bilateral issues that need to be addressed from relatively minor territorial disputes (the village of Ghajar, Shebaa Farms area, and a precise border delineation) to Israeli concerns of hostilities being launched from Lebanese territory against Israel by non-state actors, and Lebanese concerns regarding Israeli actions that undermine Lebanese sovereignty and of course the question of Palestinian refugees residing in Lebanon.

It is widely assumed that a stand-alone Israeli-Lebanon bilateral peace deal (something that has been tried in the past and spectacularly failed) is not a realistic proposition but would need to be part of a broader regional realignment. There are currently no peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon or Israel and Syria. There is no comprehensive regional peace effort. While the current US administration has expressed its intention to pursue a comprehensive peace, it has very much focused on the Israeli-Palestinian track, where there has been little movement.  

Unpopular Proverbs

Teddy Wayne has some fun. Dish faves:

Why put off 'til tomorrow what you can

and

A penny saved is a penny earned, excluding all the pennies you dump in a jar for an eventual trip to a Coinstar machine, but the prospect of carrying a jar of loose change that's top-heavy with pennies to Food Emporium to earn $12.47 is so depressing that you never do it and the jar remains unused, so, really, sometimes saving pennies actually ends up making you lose money.

Predicting Kennedy

Jon Rowe's lightbulb switches on:

The case will very likely be heard by the Supreme Court of the United States. Assuming Kagan is on the bench and the lineup remains, I predict there will be 4 votes for gay marriage, 4 against with Justice Kennedy breaking the tie AGAINST constitutionalizing gay marriage. BUT Kennedy being Kennedy he very likely would “split the baby” by demanding a federal constitutional right to civil unions that grant all the rights of marriage other than the name.

Interesting – and plausible.